Lord Stanley's Pool 2020 - Round 2 Analysis

Three game sevens in two days, each with teams coming back from 3-1 series deficits only to lose the final game, provided plenty of drama in Round 2 of Lord Stanley's Pool.

Colorado's high offensive output led a to a reshuffle of the leaderboard, but their elimination along with that of Boston and Philadelphia poses the question whether the current leaders can hold on against a small number of insurgents.

Frank Pileggi and Adam Marrus, with the same picks, are the odds-on favourites to pass the current top three - Richard Gretzinger, Mark Norman, and Hanna-Marea Kennedy - and to lead the rest of the way. With three each from Tampa Bay and Vegas, they are fully tooled with the favourites and of the 14 people with 6 players (and the one person with 7) very few took the Islanders or Dallas. Frank also gets the Cup bonus for a Tampa win.

Emiliano Santiago and Jonah P Rabinovitch are contenders if the Islanders meet Vegas in the final. Jonah is the only poolie with seven players remaining while Emiliano has steadily gained on the leaders, rising from 73rd into 9th in round 2. If Dallas plays Tampa for the Cup, S Ripsman (a longshot contender after round 2 last year as well) and Hugh MacPhie may be able to mount a challenge.

Three lost game sevens, from nine players to none
Three game sevens were played on Saturday and Sunday, and for Mark Norman, it was the exact opposite of the desired outcome. Mark lost all nine players in just over 24 hours in what is likely the shortest elapsed time between first and last player loss in pool history. Firmly in second place in both rounds 1 and 2, Mark would have been the likely pool champion if the opposite three teams - Colorado, Vancouver, and Philadelphia - had managed to complete their comebacks. It wasn't meant to be, but it is worth the honourable mention.

Goaltending all over the crease in 2020
Goaltending in these playoffs has been unpredictable and unconventional. A showdown between the two top picked goalies, Carter Hart and Andrei Vasilevskiy (39 picks each) in the East final was scuttled with Hart's elimination. Robin Lehner (4 picks) took over the top job over the more frequently picked Marc-Andre Fleury (20 picks) and is now on top of the player standings. Semyon Varlamov (2 picks) led the Islanders for the six of the Islanders' underdog wins including two shutouts, but made way for Thomas Greiss (no picks) to cash in on the game seven shutout. Thatcher Demko went on a brief but wild run to supplant Jakob Markstrom though no one took either goalie. Tuukka Rask (25 picks) took his stick and went home, likely causing the Bruins' second round loss. It makes us long for 2001, when Patrick Roy and Martin Brodeur were picked by 85 per cent of the pool and they met in the final, both with four shutouts and an assist, and Roy winning the 16th game to Brodeur's 15.

Kronis' Corner - notes from the pool's stats co-pilot Joel Kronis
This second round was interesting, more than 50% of the pool lost their Cup pick and 786 player picks were lost in this round. A couple of players that were surprising were definitely Thatcher Demko with his crazy two games that almost put the Canucks in the third round and also Joel Kirivanta who put the Stars in the third round with a hat trick including the game tying and game winning goals. I am looking forward to seeing what happens in the third round.

Mitch's predictions
I'm 7-5 after two rounds so odds are pretty good I can be over 50% this year, which isn't great but better at least than last year's 6-9. For round 3 I'll take the Islanders to upset Tampa Bay, and Vegas to continue their march towards the Cup.

On the outs
Major players on their way out: MacKinnon, Col, 133 picks; Makar, Col, 96; Pastrnak, Bos, 77; Rantanen, Col, 69; Marchand, Bos, 59; Couturier, Phi, 43; Hart, Phi, 39; Konecny, Phi, 33; Rask, Bos, 25; Giroux, Phi, 23; Krug, Bos, 22; Hughes, Van, 20.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:
Hanna-Marea Kennedy and Zachary Winkler were the hottest poolies in round two, with Hanna-Marea collecting 72 points and peaking at #1 before settling in 3rd, and Zachary jumping over 100 spots from 154th to 51st. Here are the Hot and Not lists for round two:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R1, R2)	Hot	Rd2 Pts.
Zachary Winkler	103 (154,51)	Hanna-Marea Kennedy	72
Andy Hotson	102 (144,42)	Adam Marrus	71
Todd Foster	93 (110,17)	Frank Pileggi	71
Daryl McGee	83 (177,94)	Emilio Santiago	71
Rob Phillips	79 (160,81)	Todd Foster	68

Not	Pos. Loss (R1, R2)	Not	Rd2 Pts.
Katarina Ornstein	106 (58,164)	Allan Crisford	0
Paul Ornstein	98 (23,121)	Eli Hammerman	0
Peta Allard	85 (17,102)	Erin Jones	0
Brendan Kennedy	80 (95,175)	Andrew McKenzie	0
Ryan McLellan	76 (66,142)	Steve Vinette	0
		Sophie Wexler	0

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards Team Pts Picks

Nathan MacKinnon COL 22 133

Mikko Rantanen COL 17 69

Denis Gurianov DAL 15 0

J.T. Miller VAN 15 5

Brayden Point TAM 15 28

Andre Burakovsky COL 14 4

Nazem Kadri COL 14 10

Elias Pettersson VAN 14 13

Nikita Kucherov TAM 14 64

Josh Bailey NYI 13 0

Jamie Benn DAL 13 3

Defense Team Pts Picks

Miro Heiskanen DAL 17 4

Cale Makar COL 14 96

Shea Theodore VGK 12 50

John Klingberg DAL 11 4

Quinn Hughes VAN 10 20

Goalies Team Pts Picks

Robin Lehner VGK 21 4

Carter Hart PHI 17 39

Semyon Varlamov NYI 16 2

Teams

IN Picks Cups

Vegas 215 29

Tampa Bay 180 21

NY Islanders 27 1

Dallas 25 0

OUT Picks Cups

Colorado 349 53

Boston 209 29

Philadelphia 179 23

Vancouver 49 2

Projected Round 3 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 1 and 2. So Robin Lehner would need another 3 wins and 1.5 shutouts.

(R1)
(R2)
Proj. Rank
Name
Score
Alive
Cup
Rd3 Projection

51 4 1 Adam Marrus 119 6 COL 152
51 4 1 Frank Pileggi 119 6 TBL 152
41 3 3 Hanna-Marea Kennedy 122 5 COL 151
73 9 4 Emiliano Santiago 116 6 VGK 147
5 1 5 Richard Gretzinger 126 3 PHI 146
33 28 6 S Ripsman 105 6 TBL 143
66 38 7 Jonah Rabinovitch 103 7 NYI 139
49 10 8 Mark Brewster 115 4 VGK 138
110 17 8 Todd Foster 109 5 VGK 138
33 6 10 Joel Greenstein 117 3 COL 137
17 6 11 Russell Reed 117 3 COL 135
5 6 12 Judah Gould 117 3 COL 134
16 13 12 Brian Dumble 111 4 VGK 134
66 17 12 Steve Kent 109 5 VGK 134
23 24 12 Hugh MacPhie 106 5 TBL 134
110 42 16 Sandy and Noah Hurst 102 6 VGK 131
110 36 17 Graham Haines 104 6 COL 129
17 16 18 Jack Walker 110 3 COL 126
51 13 19 Marc Ennis 111 3 COL 125
51 13 19 David Loop 111 3 COL 125
2 2 21 Mark Norman 124 0 COL 124
23 17 21 Ryan Chirnomas 109 3 COL 124
12 28 23 Brandon Poitras 105 3 COL 123
110 38 23 Grant Gillan 103 3 VGK 123
58 23 25 Nolan Sarner 107 3 COL 122
33 24 25 Brenda Dolenc 106 3 COL 122
122 78 25 Austin Neilson 90 6 TBL 122
1 11 28 Lucas Chua 114 1 PHI 121
33 28 28 Les Endes 105 3 COL 121
58 47 28 Sonia Speciale 98 4 COL 121
8 24 31 Josh Martin 106 2 COL 120
66 28 31 Steven Hawley 105 3 TBL 120
95 47 31 Vincent Galante 98 5 TBL 120
41 21 34 Jamie Martin 108 2 COL 119
73 21 34 Todd Beaman 108 2 BOS 119
95 28 34 Jeff Wood 105 3 BOS 119
95 28 34 Anthony Bruno 105 3 COL 119
95 28 34 Andrew Ryan 105 3 BOS 119
58 51 34 Marc De Sousa 97 5 BOS 119
23 24 40 Ruth Beder 106 2 PHI 117
144 82 40 Corby Fine 88 6 VGK 117
144 42 42 Andy Hotson 102 3 PHI 116
17 44 42 Aaron Allard 101 3 TBL 116
23 47 42 Amy van Steendelaar 98 3 TBL 116
154 51 42 Zackary Winkler 97 3 VGK 116
73 51 46 Dustin Hall 97 3 COL 115
51 63 46 Adrian Terzo 95 4 VGK 115
160 81 46 Rob Phillips 89 6 COL 115
3 11 49 Blair Miller 114 0 COL 114
23 59 49 Owen Thompson 96 3 COL 114
41 59 49 Michael Varriano 96 3 TBL 114
110 63 52 Douglas Wilkinson 95 3 COL 113
41 46 53 Eddie Bornstein 100 2 BOS 112
8 66 53 Paul Martin 94 3 TBL 112
79 70 53 Stanley Tepner 93 3 VGK 112
131 111 56 Della Santin 80 6 BOS 111
33 36 57 Frank Iusi 104 1 PHI 110
17 17 58 Tim Day 109 0 PHI 109
95 66 58 Peter Seemann 94 3 TBL 109
41 51 60 Samara McAdam 97 2 PHI 108
23 44 61 Harris Beder 101 1 COL 107
122 63 61 Kevin Pinto 95 3 COL 107
110 70 61 Daisy Marqeuz 93 3 VGK 107
23 51 64 James Burnand 97 2 PHI 106
3 28 65 John Kane 105 0 PHI 105
95 51 65 Martin Lefebvre 97 3 VGK 105
23 66 65 Shain Griffin 94 3 BOS 105
41 82 65 Matthew Pledger 88 3 PHI 105
79 82 69 Dryden Craig 88 3 BOS 104
95 110 69 Chad Evans 81 5 VGK 104
136 121 69 Sandra Hennigar 77 5 CGY 104
7 38 72 Isaac Nielsen 103 0 BOS 103
12 38 72 Jeff Wener 103 0 COL 103
73 59 72 James Smith 96 1 BOS 103
90 74 72 Barbara Kennedy 92 3 TBL 103
51 82 72 Larry Coole 88 3 COL 103
33 78 77 Ron Weidner 90 2 PHI 101
58 76 77 Mohan Krishnamoorthy 91 3 PHI 101
79 88 77 Mitch Wexler 87 3 VGK 101
66 88 80 Pete Ostella 87 3 VGK 100
11 66 81 Michael McShane 94 1 COL 99
41 82 81 Rishi Mistry 88 2 PHI 99
95 94 81 Daniel Levay 85 3 PHI 99
184 138 81 Zoe Rabinovitch 73 6 PHI 99
41 47 85 Mike Sennema 98 0 COL 98
8 70 85 Nolan Coole 93 1 PHI 98
58 76 85 Manny Amaral 91 2 TBL 98
154 144 85 Vince Pileggi 70 6 VGK 98
12 51 89 Azra Champsi 97 0 COL 97
12 51 89 Laura Speciale 97 0 COL 97
95 104 89 Andrew Wood 83 3 VGK 97
90 94 89 Christopher Cito 85 4 COL 97
17 59 93 Alistair Viegas 96 0 COL 96
181 134 93 Colin McSweeney 74 6 TBL 96
49 78 95 Ava McAdam-Beder 90 1 COL 95
177 94 96 Daryl McGee 85 3 VGK 94
110 104 96 Matt Steeves 83 3 TBL 94
122 116 96 Gary Brewster 78 3 VGK 94
136 121 96 Connor Brewster 77 4 COL 94
131 128 96 Shane Kozlowich 75 4 VGK 94
33 70 101 Pierre Allard 93 0 BOS 93
95 104 101 Marie Loop 83 3 BOS 93
58 74 103 Norrin Ripsman 92 0 CAR 92
33 82 103 Joe Sanfilippo 88 1 COL 92
79 94 103 Shannon Brewster 85 1 STL 92
122 121 103 Jason MacLellan 77 4 VGK 92
181 141 107 Brandon Kubis 72 4 BOS 91
181 134 107 Scott Lee 74 5 VGK 91
154 94 109 Dave Poitras 85 1 BOS 90
79 108 109 Zack O'Gorman 82 2 COL 90
122 114 109 Francesco Varriano 79 2 WSH 90
165 142 109 Shailyn Griffin 71 4 TBL 90
144 152 109 Domenic DeMarco 65 6 WSH 90
79 94 114 Trent Labrecque 85 1 BOS 89
79 108 114 Mike Ash 82 2 CBJ 89
66 128 114 Carl Pledger 75 3 PHI 89
170 128 114 Steve Anderson 75 3 COL 89
79 88 118 Manuela Marinello 87 1 BOS 88
131 88 118 Kris Tamchy 87 1 COL 88
66 134 118 Jeff Williams 74 3 COL 88
110 88 121 George Smith 87 0 BOS 87
122 116 121 Jack Budd 78 3 COL 87
144 116 121 Joey Speciale 78 3 VGK 87
79 93 124 Gareth Neilson 86 0 MTL 86
95 111 124 Michael Long 80 2 CAR 86
23 94 126 Amelia Thompson 85 0 COL 85
79 94 126 Philip Wilson 85 0 STL 85
90 114 126 Joel Kronis 79 2 COL 85
90 138 126 David Gibbons 73 3 COL 85
95 102 130 Mike De Petrillo 84 0 BOS 84
17 102 130 Peta Allard 84 0 WSH 84
58 104 132 Scott Poitras 83 0 BOS 83
95 116 132 Linda Li 78 1 BOS 83
136 134 134 Kamerni Pillay 74 3 VGK 82
122 128 135 Robert Seaser 75 2 PHI 81
51 111 136 Dennis Winkler 80 0 COL 80
154 150 136 Hugh Freedman 66 3 STL 80
122 158 138 Jessica Thompson 61 3 STL 79
136 116 139 Connie Simmons 78 0 COL 78
110 150 139 Ethan Suski 66 2 BOS 78
110 147 139 Justin Saindon 68 4 TBL 78
23 121 142 Paul Ornstein 77 0 PHI 77
136 161 142 Donna Thompson 59 3 CGY 77
90 125 144 Lori Winkler 76 0 VAN 76
73 125 144 Mouli Ramani 76 0 COL 76
73 125 144 Brett Kirkpatrick 76 0 COL 76
79 128 147 Stephen Craig 75 0 CAR 75
131 128 147 Tim Smith 75 0 BOS 75
131 155 147 Don Colangelo 64 3 TBL 75
136 138 150 Brad Chagnon 73 0 CHI 73
188 155 150 Michael Sheahan 64 3 VGK 73
144 147 152 Dan McGee 68 1 COL 72
66 142 153 Ryan McLennan 71 0 CGY 71
144 145 153 Steve Kerlin 69 1 CAR 71
165 152 153 Al Champsi 65 2 VGK 71
165 161 153 Samuel Wexler 59 2 BOS 71
165 161 153 Peter Tanner 59 3 PHI 71
160 172 153 Joy Smith 54 3 TBL 71
160 164 159 John Budd 58 2 BOS 70
122 145 160 Danny Cameron 69 0 COL 69
144 172 160 Harper Christie-Allard 54 3 TBL 69
95 147 162 Scott Drysdale 68 0 BOS 68
170 172 162 Ron Wener 54 3 CAR 68
174 176 162 Colin Kennedy 51 3 CHI 68
177 164 165 Andrea De Petrillo 58 3 VGK 67
154 158 166 Zayn Champsi 61 2 VGK 66
187 170 166 Sean Sargent 55 3 VAN 66
184 152 168 Sam Fielding 65 0 COL 65
144 157 169 Sean Smith 62 0 COL 62
110 158 170 Silvio Memme 61 0 BOS 61
58 164 171 Katarina Ornstein 58 0 PHI 58
110 164 171 Michael Parak 58 0 CHI 58
136 164 171 Mike van Steendelaar 58 0 CHI 58
154 169 174 Claudia Winkler 57 0 CGY 57
136 170 175 Paula Santin 55 0 MTL 55
95 175 176 Brenden Kennedy 53 0 PHI 53
144 176 177 Ryan Thompson 51 0 STL 51
177 179 177 Chris Smith 47 3 BOS 51
191 185 177 Emma and Andrew Fielding 38 3 CHI 51
191 185 177 Sajjad Champsi 38 4 TBL 51
160 178 181 John Thompson 49 0 CGY 49
160 180 182 Denise Allard 46 0 BOS 46
165 181 183 Dennis Clayton 45 0 CGY 45
170 181 183 Eli Day 45 0 WSH 45
194 189 183 Ted Kennedy 36 3 WSH 45
174 183 186 Jamie Sarner 44 0 CAR 44
177 183 186 Rachelle Gaudet 44 0 CBJ 44
186 185 188 Mike Griffin 38 1 BOS 41
144 188 189 Erin Jones 37 0 WSH 37
170 190 190 Allan Crisford 33 0 CGY 33
174 191 191 Sophie Wexler 32 0 STL 32
194 192 192 Campbell Clark-Smith 31 0 CHI 31
190 193 193 David Parker 30 0 MTL 30
196 193 193 Shawn Morrison 30 0 CGY 30
197 195 195 Patrick Plewa 27 0 PHI 27
188 196 196 Steve Vinette 26 0 CBJ 26
191 197 197 Andrew Mckenzie 24 0 CHI 24
199 198 197 Crystal Smalldon 18 3 WSH 24
198 199 199 Eli Hammerman 17 0 CGY 17