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A lot changes in a year. Putting aside world-changing events, late summer hockey with no fans in the stands might not be everybody's cup of tea. Yet we still have a healthy 199-person pool and a very interesting-looking one at that. Welcome to all returning and new participants.
A year ago we had the most heavily-favoured team in pool history - Tampa Bay had 58% of the Cup picks, 78% of its possible player picks, and the greatest margin over the second place team - only to see it, and most other favourite teams, crash spectacularly. That left a small rump of picks left for the following rounds.
This year we have much more evenly-spread player and team picks, which opens the door for any number of competitive scenarios in the pool. Fewer will crash and burn, and more poolies may remain in contention later into the pool.
Colorado is the favourite this year with 58 Cup picks (27%) and 349 player picks (58.46%). No comparison with the 2001 Avs that had 90.8 of its possible player picks at 67.5% of Cup picks, but leading for this year. Other popular teams are Vegas (29 Cups, 215 players) and Boston (29, 205) followed by Tampa Bay (21, 180) and Philadelphia (23, 179). There are sizeable contingents from teams all the way down the list, including Montreal - the 12th ranked team - having 34 picks. The full list is below.
We should see competitive standings well into the pool with many poolies still having a shot into the second and third rounds.
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| Nathan MacKinnon, of Trailer Park Boys fame, is the top pick for 2020. |
After a 93-point shortened season and leading the Cup-favourite Avalanche, Nathan MacKinnon leads all players with 133 picks, the only player over the 100-mark. This is a big jump for MacKinnon after having fewer than 10 picks in his four previous seasons in Lord Stanley's Pool. He is on 66.8% of the entries this year, and while not at Kucherov/Kane/Crosby levels of the past, as the only player picked by over 50% of poolies, is the most important player to watch.
Other forwards with a significant share include Mark Stone, VGK (79 picks, 39.7%), David Pastrnak, Bos (77, 38.69%), Mikko Rantanen, Col (69, 34.7%) and Nikita Kucherov, Tam (64, 32.2%) while Brad Marchand, Bos and Alex Ovechkin, Was were also picked on over 25% of entries.
Andrei Vasilevskiy and Carter Hart are the top picked goalies, with 39 selections each (19.6%). Vasilevskiy's on top for the second year in a row and third consecutive time in the top three, though of course last year's flameout (0 pts for 187 picks) earned him the Biggest Bust award. Hart makes his first appearance in the pool after an outstanding season, with one of five poolies hoping for some rookie-ish magic.
They won't be the only impact goalies. Tuukka Rask (25 picks) is always a threat, even if he's in summer shape. Marc-Andre Fleury (20) is sitting on the bench, which is not a good sign, but he helped put two consecutive pool winners over the top after sitting or being injured in the first half of previous pools. Jordan Binnington, Braden Holtby, and Philipp Grubauer all have 10+ picks (over 5%) and could have a spoiler impact, while 11 other goalies are on the list.
Cale Makar (96 picks, 48%) may not be Ray Bourque or Rob Blake, but he the first Avs defenseman to be the top pick since 2001 when the team last won the Cup. He also might be -- I have to check this -- the first rookie to lead a position ranking in pool history. And with good reason - he averaged more than a point a game this season, while being the top defenseman on the team most picked to win the Cup.
Shea Theodore (50, 25%), John Carlson (47, 24%) and Alex Pietrangelo (30, 15%) are next on the list as expected while Victor Hedman, Torey Krug and Quinn Huighes all have over 20 picks in the crowded defence field.
Pandemic summer hockey pools are not expected to have 350 participants, like the past couple years. I expected half - 175 - and we got 199. So for a bit of nostalgia, what happened the last time we were about that size? In 2010, we had 197 entries, Chicago defeated Philadelphia in the finals, and Danny Briere, who had the most points, was not picked at all in the pool (there was only one Flyer pick in the pool, Claude Giroux). Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, and Antti Niemi were the producers for Chicago. In 2011, we had 205 entries, Boston defeated Vancouver in Game 7, and Tim Thomas had an epic battle with Roberto Luongo as the pool's top two players.
Boston (209 picks) vs Carolina (105) has the greatest minimum impact, with over 100 picks to be eliminated either way. Colorado's 349 will be make or break against one of the strongest goalies in the playoffs (Darcy Kuemper - 0 picks) though they solved him at the end of the 3rd period in game one.
Any success with my picks this year will be better than last year! I'm picking Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Washington, Carolina, Vegas, Colorado, Dallas, and St. Louis to win their first round series.
Here are the most common players in this year's pool.
F:
Nathan MacKinnon, Col (133 picks)
Mark Stone, VGK (79)
David Pastrnak, Bos (77)
Mikko Rantanen, Col (69)
Nikita Kucherov, Tam (64)
Alex Ovechkin, Was / Brad Marchand, Bos (59)
D:
Cale Makar, Col (96)
Shea Theodore, VGK (50)
G:
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tam / Carter Hart, Phi (39)
Team to win:
Colorado (53)
Last year:
F:
Nikita Kucherov, Tam (274 picks)
Johnny Gaudreau, Cgy (197)
Steven Stamkos, Tam (191)
Alex Ovechkin, Was (156)
Sidney Crosby, Pit (101)
Sean Monahan, Cgy / Brayden Point, Tam (93)
D:
Mark Giordano, Cgy (176)
John Carlson, Was (107)
G:
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tam (185)
Team to win:
Tampa Bay (204)
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| Colorado | 349 | 53 |
| Vegas | 215 | 29 |
| Boston | 209 | 29 |
| Tampa Bay | 180 | 21 |
| Philadelphia | 179 | 23 |
| Washington | 149 | 7 |
| St. Louis | 127 | 6 |
| Carolina | 105 | 6 |
| Calgary | 70 | 9 |
| Vancouver | 49 | 2 |
| Chicago | 47 | 7 |
| Montreal | 34 | 3 |
| NY Islanders | 27 | 1 |
| Dallas | 25 | 0 |
| Columbus | 19 | 3 |
| Arizona | 7 | 0 |
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