Lord Stanley's Pool 2020 - Round 1 Analysis

Carter Hart proved his top-goalie worth in Round 1.

In a year like no other, bubble hockey has proved to be quite entertaining. After what was a chaotic opening night (three hockey games to be played on the same sheet of ice + limitless sudden-death overtime = what could possibly go wrong?!), the NHL appears to have handled things exceptionally well. Kudos to them.

And so in that spirit, let's quote Dr. Anthony Fauci, honourary New York Islander for pool banner purposes: "We haven't even begun to see the end of it yet."

Indeed in a big change from last year, when nearly all of the pool was wiped out in round one by a plague of loser hockey, we have a super-competitive pool that is healthy and strong entering round two. The first round elimination rate (31.2% of player picks, 20.6% of cup picks) was middle of the pack, the top team to bow out - Washington - was not overly relied upon, and there is a long list of participants that the standings show are still in the running. Good luck in round two!

First round leaders
Lucas Chua maintains a one-point lead after round one, coming on strong in the second week to overtake Josh Martin. Josh had led for much of the first week, but fell in recent days. Lucas will be in tough to hang on as he has lost two players while Mark Norman is only one point behind and remains unscathed. Richard Gretzinger and Judah Gould are also unscathed and in the top five, ready to challenge.

See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.

Unscathed or wiped out
Six entries were wiped out this year after one round, or 3%. While that's obviously a significant drop from last year's aberration (139 entries), it is actually the third-highest in pool history. There were 45 unscathed entries (22.6%), which is above average - well done.

Biggest Bust award
Unlike last year when nearly the whole pool went bust, there weren't many big picks eliminated early and those that were didn't fare all that badly in their one round. And so, fittingly in a year when real life has intruded upon our fantasy hockey world, the biggest bust is Tuukka Rask. His team is still in it, but his heart is not, and he left the bubble to be with his family. I'm sure we all understand. I'm sure the 25 people who picked him are ok with the 1 point they received, because that's life these days. Don't say otherwise or you'll be shunned. Just accept it and move on!

Biggest busts over the years: 2020 - Rask; 2019 - Vasilevskiy; 2018 - Doughty; 2017 - Kane; 2016 - Doughty; 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

Hindsight award
Congratulations are always due to the few individuals who take daring picks that pan out. Kudos to Michael Parak who was the only one to pick David Krejci of Boston (8 pts). Special mention also to Emiliano Santiago and Jonah P. Rabinovitch for picking Semyon Varlamov of the Islanders (9 pts). The best player nobody took was Denis Gurianov (Dallas, 7 pts).

On the outs
Major players on their way out: Ovechkin, Was, 59 picks; Aho, Car, 48; Carlson, Was, 47; O'Reilly, StL, 40; Pietrangelo, StL, 30; Svechnikov, Car, 26; Binnington, StL, 11; Holtby, Was, 11.

Round 2 predictions
After going a dreadful 1-for-8 in my 2019 first round picks (didn't we all), I'll take my mediocre 5-for-8 showing this year. So now I'm ready to fail on my round 2 picks: Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Vegas, Colorado (even though I'm writing this late and the Avs are already down 2-0, they were my pick).

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Nathan MacKinnon would get another 10 points, while Marc-Andre Fleury would again get just 1 win and ride the pine while his agent has a hissy fit.

LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.

R1 Rank	Proj. Rank	Name	R2 Projection	R1 Pts.	Lost	IMP	IMP%	Cup
2	1	Mark Norman	126	63	0	0	0.0%	COL
5	2	Judah Gould	120	60	0	0	0.0%	COL
5	2	Richard Gretzinger	120	60	0	0	0.0%	PHI
3	4	Blair Miller	117	61	2	5	8.2%	COL
1	5	Lucas Chua	114	64	2	14	21.9%	PHI
7	6	Isaac Nielsen	112	59	1	6	10.2%	BOS
12	7	Jeff Wener	110	55	0	0	0.0%	COL
8	8	Josh Martin	109	57	1	5	8.8%	COL
8	9	Nolan Coole	106	57	3	8	14.0%	PHI
17	9	Tim Day	106	53	0	0	0.0%	PHI
17	9	Jack Walker	106	53	0	0	0.0%	COL
17	9	Russell Reed	106	53	0	0	0.0%	COL
23	13	Ryan Chirnomas	104	52	0	0	0.0%	COL
33	14	Joel Greenstein	102	51	0	0	0.0%	COL
33	14	S Ripsman	102	51	0	0	0.0%	TBL
3	16	John Kane	101	61	3	21	34.4%	PHI
17	17	Alistair Viegas	100	53	3	6	11.3%	COL
23	17	Hugh MacPhie	100	52	1	4	7.7%	TBL
23	17	Ruth Beder	100	52	1	4	7.7%	PHI
41	17	Matthew Pledger	100	50	0	0	0.0%	PHI
41	17	Hanna-Marea Kennedy	100	50	0	0	0.0%	COL
23	22	Harris Beder	98	52	2	6	11.5%	COL
33	22	Les Endes	98	51	1	4	7.8%	COL
49	22	Mark Brewster	98	49	0	0	0.0%	VGK
11	25	Michael McShane	97	56	3	15	26.8%	COL
16	25	Brian Dumble	97	54	2	11	20.4%	VGK
33	27	Frank Iusi	96	51	2	6	11.8%	PHI
41	27	Jamie Martin	96	50	1	4	8.0%	COL
41	27	Samara McAdam	96	50	1	4	8.0%	PHI
51	27	David Loop	96	48	0	0	0.0%	COL
51	27	Marc Ennis	96	48	0	0	0.0%	COL
51	27	Frank Pileggi	96	48	0	0	0.0%	TBL
51	27	Adam Marrus	96	48	0	0	0.0%	COL
12	34	Brandon Poitras	95	55	3	15	27.3%	COL
12	34	Laura Speciale	95	55	3	15	27.3%	COL
41	36	Mike Sennema	94	50	2	6	12.0%	COL
41	36	Eddie Bornstein	94	50	1	6	12.0%	BOS
58	36	Sonia Speciale	94	47	0	0	0.0%	COL
58	36	Nolan Sarner	94	47	0	0	0.0%	COL
23	40	Amelia Thompson	93	52	3	11	21.2%	COL
23	40	Owen Thompson	93	52	3	11	21.2%	COL
49	42	Ava McAdam-Beder	92	49	2	6	12.2%	COL
66	42	Steven Hawley	92	46	1	0	0.0%	TBL
66	42	Steve Kent	92	46	0	0	0.0%	VGK
23	45	James Burnand	91	52	2	13	25.0%	PHI
33	45	Brenda Dolenc	91	51	2	11	21.6%	COL
23	47	Amy van Steendelaar	90	52	3	14	26.9%	TBL
23	47	Shain Griffin	90	52	2	14	26.9%	BOS
73	47	James Smith	90	45	2	0	0.0%	BOS
73	47	Emiliano Santiago	90	45	0	0	0.0%	VGK
73	47	Todd Beaman	90	45	0	0	0.0%	BOS
8	52	Paul Martin	89	57	4	25	43.9%	TBL
12	53	Azra Champsi	88	55	3	22	40.0%	COL
17	53	Aaron Allard	88	53	3	18	34.0%	TBL
33	53	Ron Weidner	88	51	3	14	27.5%	PHI
58	53	Manny Amaral	88	47	2	6	12.8%	TBL
58	53	Mohan Krishnamoorthy	88	47	1	6	12.8%	PHI
79	53	Dryden Craig	88	44	0	0	0.0%	BOS
58	59	Norrin Ripsman	87	47	3	7	14.9%	CAR
41	59	Michael Varriano	87	50	2	13	26.0%	TBL
33	61	Joe Sanfilippo	86	51	3	16	31.4%	COL
90	61	Barbara Kennedy	86	43	0	0	0.0%	TBL
33	63	Pierre Allard	85	51	3	17	33.3%	BOS
51	63	Adrian Terzo	85	48	2	11	22.9%	VGK
66	65	Jonah Rabinovitch	84	46	1	8	17.4%	NYI
95	65	Jeff Wood	84	42	0	0	0.0%	BOS
95	65	Andrew Ryan	84	42	0	0	0.0%	BOS
95	65	Anthony Bruno	84	42	0	0	0.0%	COL
95	65	Vincent Galante	84	42	0	0	0.0%	TBL
95	65	Marie Loop	84	42	0	0	0.0%	BOS
95	65	Martin Lefebvre	84	42	0	0	0.0%	VGK
95	65	Daniel Levay	84	42	0	0	0.0%	PHI
23	73	Paul Ornstein	83	52	3	21	40.4%	PHI
73	73	Dustin Hall	83	45	3	7	15.6%	COL
41	75	Rishi Mistry	82	50	3	18	36.0%	PHI
79	75	Manuela Marinello	82	44	2	6	13.6%	BOS
95	75	Peter Seemann	82	42	1	2	4.8%	TBL
110	75	George Smith	82	41	0	0	0.0%	BOS
110	75	Graham Haines	82	41	0	0	0.0%	COL
110	75	Todd Foster	82	41	0	0	0.0%	VGK
51	81	Dennis Winkler	81	48	3	15	31.3%	COL
58	81	Scott Poitras	81	47	3	13	27.7%	BOS
79	83	Shannon Brewster	80	44	3	8	18.2%	STL
79	83	Mike Ash	80	44	3	8	18.2%	CBJ
58	83	Marc De Sousa	80	47	2	14	29.8%	BOS
90	83	David Gibbons	80	43	2	6	14.0%	COL
122	83	Austin Neilson	80	40	0	0	0.0%	TBL
79	88	Gareth Neilson	79	44	3	9	20.5%	MTL
79	89	Zack O'Gorman	78	44	3	10	22.7%	COL
95	89	Michael Long	78	42	2	6	14.3%	CAR
110	89	Sandy and Noah Hurst	78	41	1	4	9.8%	VGK
110	89	Grant Gillan	78	41	1	4	9.8%	VGK
131	89	Kris Tamchy	78	39	0	0	0.0%	COL
131	89	Della Santin	78	39	0	0	0.0%	BOS
51	95	Larry Coole	77	48	4	19	39.6%	COL
66	95	Pete Ostella	77	46	3	15	32.6%	VGK
79	95	Trent Labrecque	77	44	3	11	25.0%	BOS
79	95	Stanley Tepner	77	44	3	11	25.0%	VGK
79	95	Mitch Wexler	77	44	2	11	25.0%	VGK
90	100	Lori Winkler	76	43	3	10	23.3%	VAN
95	100	Mike De Petrillo	76	42	3	8	19.0%	BOS
110	100	Douglas Wilkinson	76	41	3	6	14.6%	COL
17	103	Peta Allard	75	53	6	31	58.5%	WSH
66	103	Carl Pledger	75	46	3	17	37.0%	PHI
95	103	Andrew Wood	75	42	3	9	21.4%	VGK
90	103	Christopher Cito	75	43	2	11	25.6%	COL
79	107	Philip Wilson	74	44	3	14	31.8%	STL
110	107	Matt Steeves	74	41	3	8	19.5%	TBL
110	107	Silvio Memme	74	41	3	8	19.5%	BOS
122	107	Robert Seaser	74	40	2	6	15.0%	PHI
122	107	Kevin Pinto	74	40	1	6	15.0%	COL
144	107	Andy Hotson	74	37	0	0	0.0%	PHI
144	107	Corby Fine	74	37	0	0	0.0%	VGK
110	114	Michael Parak	73	41	3	9	22.0%	CHI
131	114	Tim Smith	73	39	3	5	12.8%	BOS
154	116	Dave Poitras	72	36	0	0	0.0%	BOS
95	117	Linda Li	71	42	3	13	31.0%	BOS
95	117	Chad Evans	71	42	3	13	31.0%	VGK
110	117	Daisy Marqeuz	71	41	3	11	26.8%	VGK
122	120	Gary Brewster	70	40	4	10	25.0%	VGK
160	120	Rob Phillips	70	35	0	0	0.0%	COL
66	122	Jeff Williams	69	46	5	23	50.0%	COL
136	122	Connor Brewster	69	38	3	7	18.4%	COL
66	124	Ryan McLennan	68	46	6	24	52.2%	CGY
136	124	Connie Simmons	68	38	3	8	21.1%	COL
144	124	Joey Speciale	68	37	3	6	16.2%	VGK
73	127	Mouli Ramani	67	45	6	23	51.1%	COL
73	127	Brett Kirkpatrick	67	45	6	23	51.1%	COL
122	127	Francesco Varriano	67	40	4	13	32.5%	WSH
90	127	Joel Kronis	67	43	3	19	44.2%	COL
122	127	Jack Budd	67	40	3	13	32.5%	COL
136	127	Brad Chagnon	67	38	3	9	23.7%	CHI
136	127	Kamerni Pillay	67	38	2	9	23.7%	VGK
79	134	Stephen Craig	66	44	6	22	50.0%	CAR
122	134	Jason MacLellan	66	40	3	14	35.0%	VGK
154	134	Zackary Winkler	66	36	3	6	16.7%	VGK
58	137	Katarina Ornstein	65	47	6	29	61.7%	PHI
95	137	Scott Drysdale	65	42	5	19	45.2%	BOS
144	139	Dan McGee	64	37	4	10	27.0%	COL
110	140	Ethan Suski	63	41	4	19	46.3%	BOS
131	140	Shane Kozlowich	63	39	4	15	38.5%	VGK
136	140	Mike van Steendelaar	63	38	4	13	34.2%	CHI
110	140	Justin Saindon	63	41	3	19	46.3%	TBL
136	140	Sandra Hennigar	63	38	3	13	34.2%	CGY
165	145	Peter Tanner	62	34	3	6	17.6%	PHI
177	145	Daryl McGee	62	31	0	0	0.0%	VGK
95	147	Brenden Kennedy	61	42	6	23	54.8%	PHI
122	147	Danny Cameron	61	40	4	19	47.5%	COL
144	149	Steve Kerlin	60	37	5	14	37.8%	CAR
131	149	Don Colangelo	60	39	3	18	46.2%	TBL
165	149	Shailyn Griffin	60	34	3	8	23.5%	TBL
170	149	Steve Anderson	60	33	3	6	18.2%	COL
181	149	Scott Lee	60	30	0	0	0.0%	VGK
181	149	Colin McSweeney	60	30	0	0	0.0%	TBL
144	155	Sean Smith	59	37	6	15	40.5%	COL
154	155	Claudia Winkler	59	36	5	13	36.1%	CGY
144	155	Domenic DeMarco	59	37	3	15	40.5%	WSH
136	158	Paula Santin	58	38	6	18	47.4%	MTL
154	158	Hugh Freedman	58	36	3	14	38.9%	STL
154	158	Vince Pileggi	58	36	3	14	38.9%	VGK
184	158	Zoe Rabinovitch	58	29	0	0	0.0%	PHI
165	162	Al Champsi	57	34	4	11	32.4%	VGK
181	162	Brandon Kubis	57	30	1	3	10.0%	BOS
122	164	Jessica Thompson	56	40	6	24	60.0%	STL
165	164	Samuel Wexler	56	34	4	12	35.3%	BOS
136	166	Donna Thompson	54	38	6	22	57.9%	CGY
160	166	John Budd	54	35	4	16	45.7%	BOS
154	168	Zayn Champsi	53	36	5	19	52.8%	VGK
184	169	Sam Fielding	52	29	2	6	20.7%	COL
160	170	Joy Smith	51	35	6	19	54.3%	TBL
144	171	Ryan Thompson	50	37	6	24	64.9%	STL
144	171	Harper Christie-Allard	50	37	6	24	64.9%	TBL
187	171	Sean Sargent	50	27	3	4	14.8%	VAN
160	174	John Thompson	48	35	6	22	62.9%	CGY
174	174	Colin Kennedy	48	32	6	16	50.0%	CHI
160	176	Denise Allard	47	35	6	23	65.7%	BOS
177	176	Andrea De Petrillo	47	31	3	15	48.4%	VGK
177	176	Chris Smith	47	31	3	15	48.4%	BOS
188	176	Michael Sheahan	47	26	1	5	19.2%	VGK
165	180	Dennis Clayton	46	34	6	22	64.7%	CGY
177	181	Rachelle Gaudet	44	31	6	18	58.1%	CBJ
174	182	Jamie Sarner	42	32	6	22	68.8%	CAR
170	183	Ron Wener	41	33	6	25	75.8%	CAR
170	183	Eli Day	41	33	6	25	75.8%	WSH
186	183	Mike Griffin	41	28	5	15	53.6%	BOS
191	186	Sajjad Champsi	38	24	4	10	41.7%	TBL
144	187	Erin Jones	37	37	9	37	100.0%	WSH
191	188	Emma and Andrew Fielding	36	24	6	12	50.0%	CHI
170	189	Allan Crisford	33	33	9	33	100.0%	CGY
174	190	Sophie Wexler	32	32	9	32	100.0%	STL
190	190	David Parker	32	25	8	18	72.0%	MTL
194	192	Ted Kennedy	29	23	6	17	73.9%	WSH
196	193	Shawn Morrison	28	22	6	16	72.7%	CGY
197	194	Patrick Plewa	27	20	8	13	65.0%	PHI
194	194	Campbell Clark-Smith	27	23	7	19	82.6%	CHI
188	196	Steve Vinette	26	26	9	26	100.0%	CBJ
191	197	Andrew Mckenzie	24	24	9	24	100.0%	CHI
198	198	Eli Hammerman	17	17	9	17	100.0%	CGY
199	199	Crystal Smalldon	15	10	6	5	50.0%	WSH