Lord Stanley's Pool 2017 - Round 2 Analysis

Big teams went down in Round 2, with the second- and third-most picked clubs knocked out and joining the top team that bowed out in round 1. Eighty per cent of player picks and 87% of Cup picks are out, nearly the same as but edging out last year as the fourth highest year in pool history.

Three of four series were won by the team with fewer picks, with Ottawa being the only "favoured" team to win - and in the real world they were cast as the underdogs. In terms of pick ranking, teams 4, 5, 9, and 16 are the four remaining for the Conference Finals.

Despite the carnage, we have had some excellent performances both on the ice and in the pool.

Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff had an excellent 57 points in round 2 (third-highest) to move from eighth place to first - with a remarkable 13-point lead. (To put that into perspective, the highest winning margin ever is 14 points.)

New faces fought their way onto the leaderboard early in Round 2 and stuck there - yet with the end of the round leaving most with only three players and no one with more than 6, the big question is whether this round's leaders will stick it out our if new challengers will emerge for the final push.

The Contenders: a brief primer
Rubop J-Slip's 13-point lead provides a healthy padding against the competition, but with only three players and without a Cup champion he is open to be challenged. Second and third place, being in the same situation, are very much open to new contenders.

Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff - 104 pts, 3 picks (2 OTT, 1 ANH) - 13-point lead, best served by Ottawa defeating the Penguins

Glenn Zyzanski - 91 pts, 3 picks (3 NAS) - one of the only contenders with Nashville players

Pasqi Porco - 91 pts, 3 picks (3 PIT) - needs Pittsburgh for points, but then lose in the final

Shane Kozlowich - 89 pts, 3 picks (3 PIT) Cup: PIT - leading contender who picked the Pens to win

Phil Victor - 88 pts, 6 picks (3 ANA, 3 PIT) Cup: ANA - projection has him taking the lead, needs Anaheim to produce (and to win). Top entry with 6 picks

Alvin Gainforth - 86 pts, 2 picks (1 OTT, 1 PIT) - a near impossibility but can't rule out a monster performance from Karlsson

Kamerni Pillai - 85 pts, 4 picks (3 PIT, 1 ANA) Cup: PIT - a Pittsburgh Cup win over Anaheim bodes well

Rachelle Gaudet - 83 pts, 6 picks (3 OTT, 3 ANA) - second place among those with 6, could earn a surprise win if Ottawa defeats Anaheim in the final

Kris Tamchy - 83 pts, 3 picks (3 PIT) Cup: PIT - needs PIT to win, has an outside shot for 3rd if that happens

Michael McShane - 82 pts, 4 picks (3 PIT, 1 NAS) Cup: PIT - needs the Pens to win the final over Nashville with Subban producing

Peter Seemann - 81 pts, 4 picks (3 ANA, 1 PIT) - Anaheim losing to Ottawa in the finals could leave the window open for this longshot

Matt Steeves - 78 pts, 6 picks (3 PIT, 3 NAS) Cup: PIT - Nashville, and especially Pekka Rinne, could vault this entry to the top

John Thompson - 76 pts, 6 picks (3 ANA, 3 PIT) Cup: ANA - second among those who picked Anaheim, a Duck triumph over Pittsburgh (especially with a Gibson shutout or two) could make this possible

Al Champsi - 76 pts, 6 picks (3 ANA, 3 PIT) Cup: ANA - same as above, but has Kessel and Fowler instead of Perry and Schultz

Connor Johnson - 70 pts, 3 picks (3 OTT) Cup: OTT - honourable mention to the only poolie who picked Ottawa to win, unlikely to finish in the money even if it happens. A string of shutouts from Craig Anderson and who knows

Jessica Thompson - 66 pts, 6 picks () Cup: PIT - with the odds Jessica's defied over the last three years, we can never rule this Hall of Famer out. Actually it is impossible, but Jessica might still get the Cup pick correct as a nice footnote to the end of the streak

A few pool records
Before we close the book on the story of pool futility, we do in fact have a few pool records. A new low-score record for the pool has been set (one point fewer than last year's record). Lows have also been set for Forwards points, and Defensemen points (for the first time, a zero - a record that won't be beaten!). Check out the pool records here.

Mitch's predictions
I was 2-2 in the second round, happily getting the Rangers/Ottawa wrong (as I said I'd be) but unhappily losing with the Oilers. Washington losing of course was the easiest pick. So I'm 8-4 so far... From here I'll take the Penguins (and again be happy to lose this one) and Nashville in the final.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:
Diego DeMarco and Rubop J-Slip were the hottest poolies in round two, with Diego jumping from 241st to 121st and Rubop topping the list with 57 points to move into first place in the pool. Here are the Hot and Not lists for round two:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R1, R2)	Hot	Rd2 Pts.
Diego DeMarco	120 (241,121)	Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff	57
Blair Phillips	111 (168,57)	Rachelle Gaudet	51
Aaron Rowe-Jardine	111 (147,36)	Andrew Ryan	50
Andrew Hamilton	109 (241,132)	Peter Seemann	48
Ted Kennedy	109 (241,132)	Phil Victor	48
		Alvin Gainforth	48
Not	Pos. Loss (R1, R2)	Not	Rd2 Pts.
Nathan Slack	151 (24,175)	5 poolies with	0
Colin McSweeney	135 (77,212)	Manuella Marinello	5
David Valenti	132 (106,238)	Peter Tanner	8
Mark Norman	122 (90,212)	Doug Crockett	8
Jamie Sarner	121 (30,151)

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards Team Pts Picks

Evgeni Malkin PIT 18 47

Leon Draisaitl EDM 16 69

Ryan Getzlaf ANA 15 65

Jake Guentzel PIT 14 1

Sidney Crosby PIT 14 114

Phil Kessel PIT 13 34

Nicklas Backstrom WAS 13 163

T.J. Oshie WAS 12 19

Mark Letestu EDM 11 0

Jakob Silfverberg ANA 11 2

Defense Team Pts Picks

Erik Karlsson OTT 13 43

Ryan Ellis NAS 9 0

Roman Josi NAS 8 1

Justin Schultz PIT 8 28

Shea Theodore ANA 7 0

P.K. Subban NAS 7 6

Ryan McDonagh NYR 7 9

Goalies Team Pts Picks

Pekka Rinne NAS 21 1

Cam Talbot EDM 18 15

Craig Anderson OTT 14 2

Marc-Andre Fleury PIT 13 0

Teams

IN Picks Cups

Pittsburgh 253 28

Anaheim 156 7

Ottawa 67 1

Nashville 18 0

OUT Picks Cups

Washington 553 117

Edmonton 274 9

St. Louis 43 3

NY Rangers 34 3

Projected Round 3 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 0 1 and 2. So John Gibson should get exactly 3.5 wins, right?

(R1)
(R2)
Proj. Rank
Name
Score
Alive
Cup
Rd3 Projection

24 5 1 Phil Victor 88 6 ANA 123
8 1 2 Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff 104 3 WSH 121
2 2 3 Pasqi Porco 91 3 WSH 113
38 28 4 John Thompson 76 6 ANA 112
3 26 5 Matt Steeves 77 6 PIT 111
47 28 5 Al Champsi 76 6 ANA 111
11 9 7 Kamerni Pillay 85 4 PIT 110
90 13 7 Rachelle Gaudet 83 6 WSH 110
5 4 9 Shane Kozlowich 89 3 PIT 109
38 38 9 Gary Brewster 74 6 PIT 109
6 5 11 Kevin Pinto 88 3 CHI 108
6 15 11 Michael McShane 82 4 PIT 108
67 42 11 Erin Jones 73 6 CHI 108
8 7 14 Amelia Thompson 87 3 EDM 107
1 9 14 Campbell Clark-Smith 85 3 EDM 107
24 15 16 Joel Kronis 82 3 WSH 103
19 19 16 Domenic DeMarco 81 3 EDM 103
59 64 18 Emma and Andrew Fielding 69 6 CHI 102
11 2 19 Glenn Zyzanski 91 3 WSH 101
11 12 19 Matthew Pledger 84 3 EDM 101
11 22 19 Duncan Campbell 79 3 PIT 101
77 19 19 Peter Seemann 81 4 WSH 101
90 64 19 Carl Pledger 69 6 CHI 101
38 13 24 Kris Tamchy 83 3 PIT 100
21 21 24 Erin Ash 80 3 CHI 100
24 22 26 Adam De Caire 79 3 PIT 99
30 22 26 Jackson Edwards 79 3 PIT 99
4 15 28 Paul Martin 82 2 EDM 98
24 28 28 Mark Matheson 76 3 PIT 98
90 89 30 Jessica Thompson 66 6 PIT 97
38 8 31 Alvin Gainforth 86 2 WSH 96
51 22 31 Lori Garrah 79 3 WSH 96
19 28 31 Leo Gaudet 76 3 WSH 96
30 28 31 Laura Tackaberry 76 3 WSH 96
51 28 31 Ryan Chirnomas 76 3 CHI 96
15 46 36 Shawn Morrison 72 3 PIT 94
106 26 37 Douglas Wilkinson 77 3 WSH 93
67 28 37 Julian Vardy 76 3 PIT 93
30 42 37 Becke Gainforth 73 3 WSH 93
67 42 37 Peta Allard 73 3 CHI 93
38 46 41 Alan Eng 72 3 WSH 92
59 9 42 Andrew Ryan 85 1 WSH 91
38 64 42 Doug Frazier 69 3 CHI 91
18 64 42 Jacob Johnson 69 3 TOR 91
191 121 45 Daryl McGee 61 6 PIT 90
67 46 46 Aron Slipacoff 72 3 WSH 89
51 96 46 Mitch Wexler 65 4 CHI 89
59 15 48 Marie Sealy 82 1 WSH 88
106 49 48 Chiara Cerzosimo 71 3 CHI 88
8 57 48 Connor Johnson 70 3 OTT 88
38 73 48 Todd Nemisz 68 3 CHI 88
147 36 52 Aaron Rowe-Jardine 75 2 WSH 87
30 49 52 Matthew Warner 71 2 CHI 87
47 49 52 Sammi Lien 71 2 CHI 87
30 49 52 Lucas Chua 71 2 WSH 87
51 64 52 Ron Ego 69 3 WSH 87
21 57 57 Kovi Smolack 70 3 PIT 86
77 73 58 Barbara Kennedy 68 3 CHI 85
21 49 59 Nolan Ash 71 2 PIT 84
67 64 59 Jay Dart 69 3 ANA 84
59 73 59 Silvio Memme 68 3 PIT 84
51 57 62 Mason Drew 70 2 WSH 83
51 73 62 Mike Johnson 68 2 WSH 83
106 73 62 Hugh MacPhie 68 3 WSH 83
147 89 62 Dave Poitras 66 3 WSH 83
47 121 62 Iver Dart 61 3 CHI 83
106 73 67 Steve Kent 68 2 CHI 82
77 89 67 Natalie MacDonell 66 3 CHI 82
90 89 67 Ryan Thompson 66 3 PIT 82
106 96 67 Andy Hotson 65 3 PIT 82
90 38 71 Blair Miller 74 1 WSH 81
67 73 71 Andrew Rudy 68 2 WSH 81
51 73 71 Trish Robichaud 68 2 WSH 81
67 73 71 Stefano Picone 68 2 WSH 81
67 73 71 Kris Karm 68 2 WSH 81
30 89 71 George Smith 66 2 WSH 81
59 85 71 Mel McNulty 67 3 WSH 81
90 99 78 Brenden Kennedy 64 3 PIT 80
168 143 78 Kara Rive 59 4 PIT 80
77 85 80 Stephen Weir 67 3 WSH 79
191 99 80 Anthony Fernando 64 3 WSH 79
147 107 80 Kento Onishi 63 3 WSH 79
147 107 80 Donna Thompson 63 3 ANA 79
77 99 84 Samara McAdam 64 2 NYR 78
30 151 84 Jamie Sarner 58 3 SJS 78
106 49 86 Martin Lefebvre 71 1 WSH 77
106 49 86 Richard Crowe 71 1 WSH 77
90 57 86 Frank Iusi 70 1 WSH 77
59 99 86 Neil Poitras 64 2 WSH 77
129 107 86 Mohan Krishnamoorthy 63 2 WSH 77
129 85 86 Ethan Craig 67 3 WSH 77
90 99 86 Sean Sargent 64 3 WSH 77
191 116 86 Denise Allard 62 3 WSH 77
24 28 94 Don Colangelo 76 0 WSH 76
129 57 94 Mike De Petrillo 70 1 WSH 76
129 57 94 Andrew Tompkins 70 1 WSH 76
147 64 94 Tim Sowden 69 1 CHI 76
129 64 94 Edward Levens 69 1 CHI 76
147 64 94 Sandy and Noah Hurst 69 1 CHI 76
51 107 94 Michael Varriano 63 2 CHI 76
59 99 94 Vincent Galante 64 3 MIN 76
30 36 102 David Loop 75 0 WSH 75
77 73 102 Nigel Fowler 68 1 BOS 75
106 121 102 Steve Kerlin 61 2 WSH 75
226 132 102 Harper Christie-Allard 60 3 CHI 75
38 38 106 Owen Thompson 74 0 EDM 74
38 38 106 Jeff Wener 74 0 WSH 74
106 121 106 Martha Gill 61 2 CHI 74
90 121 106 Charles Wright 61 2 WSH 74
191 121 106 Andrew Mckenzie 61 3 PIT 74
226 132 106 Robert Struthers 60 3 WSH 74
90 132 106 Ron Wener 60 3 CHI 74
226 184 106 Gareth Neilson 53 4 MTL 74
47 42 114 Brett Kirkpatrick 73 0 WSH 73
77 99 114 Ira-Clarke Jackaman-Slipacoff 64 2 MIN 73
147 116 114 Mike van Steendelaar 62 2 CHI 73
241 132 114 Ted Kennedy 60 3 WSH 73
59 121 118 Brandon Kubis 61 2 WSH 72
147 143 118 Maria De Marco 59 3 WSH 72
191 151 118 Tim Day 58 3 CHI 72
77 49 121 Molly McNulty 71 0 WSH 71
209 143 121 Todd Foster 59 2 WSH 71
67 171 121 Amy van Steendelaar 55 2 BOS 71
241 132 121 Andrew Hamilton 60 3 MTL 71
226 143 121 Rob Phillips 59 3 CHI 71
168 151 121 KC Swink 58 3 ANA 71
106 164 121 Ruth Beder 56 3 PIT 71
147 164 121 Steve Sealy 56 4 PIT 71
168 57 129 Blair Phillips 70 0 WSH 70
15 99 129 Elena Noble 64 1 EDM 70
129 121 129 Nolan Sarner 61 2 CHI 70
209 151 129 Brett Bowman 58 2 CHI 70
106 164 129 Isaac Nielsen 56 2 CHI 70
209 151 129 Laura Speciale 58 3 WSH 70
24 175 129 Nathan Slack 54 3 PIT 70
241 206 129 Jeff Ware 48 6 CHI 70
147 107 137 Shane Firth 63 1 WSH 69
241 151 137 Paul Groba 58 3 MTL 69
226 161 137 Stephen Craig 57 3 WSH 69
106 73 140 Stacy Martin 68 0 STL 68
191 121 140 Vince DiNucci 61 1 WSH 68
168 151 140 Gabe Pretto 58 2 WSH 68
147 175 140 Richard Gretzinger 54 2 WSH 68
168 164 140 Patrick Gill 56 3 WSH 68
15 85 145 Sam Fielding 67 0 WSH 67
90 132 145 Gavin Bailey 60 1 WSH 67
129 195 145 Joel Borgida 51 3 MIN 67
106 89 148 Joel Greenstein 66 0 MIN 66
67 89 148 John Upper 66 0 EDM 66
90 164 148 Paula Brinston 56 2 WSH 66
226 184 148 Brandon Poitras 53 3 WSH 66
147 199 148 Brendan Browne 50 3 CHI 66
129 96 153 Fred Slade 65 0 MTL 65
106 151 153 Kevin Boomer 58 1 WSH 65
106 206 153 Desmond Desrosier 48 3 CHI 65
77 161 156 Shawn Robichaud 57 1 WSH 64
253 184 156 Dave Spedding 53 3 PIT 64
168 107 158 Scott Poitras 63 0 WSH 63
168 107 158 Fraser Macdonald 63 0 WSH 63
168 107 158 Ryan Slack 63 0 WSH 63
168 107 158 Siyeon Lee 63 0 WSH 63
106 164 158 Mike Umana 56 1 WSH 63
168 175 158 Stephanie Robichaud 54 2 CHI 63
226 199 158 Erin McSweeney 50 3 CHI 63
77 212 158 Colin McSweeney 47 3 PIT 63
191 116 166 Graham Haines 62 0 WSH 62
191 116 166 Pierre Allard 62 0 WSH 62
168 116 166 Ava McAdam-Beder 62 0 CHI 62
129 171 166 Randy Stewart 55 1 WSH 62
90 171 166 Jeff Lucas 55 1 WSH 62
129 171 166 Steven Hawley 55 1 WSH 62
147 184 166 Thomas Cheyne Matheson 53 2 WSH 62
209 121 173 Brad Moulton 61 0 WSH 61
241 121 173 Diego DeMarco 61 0 CHI 61
90 175 173 Steve Corda 54 1 WSH 61
147 175 173 Milton Howe 54 1 CHI 61
77 175 173 Ben Bangs 54 1 CHI 61
209 175 173 Mark Brewster 54 1 WSH 61
147 220 173 Andrea Phillips 45 3 CHI 61
253 230 173 Marie Loop 44 3 CHI 61
106 132 181 Darrin Husack 60 0 STL 60
191 132 181 Pierre Maxime Gravelle 60 0 WSH 60
226 132 181 Aaron Allard 60 0 CHI 60
209 132 181 Frank Pileggi 60 0 WSH 60
147 132 181 Russell Reed 60 0 WSH 60
106 175 181 Noah Bloedow 54 1 WSH 60
168 175 181 Robert Herzig 54 1 WSH 60
106 184 181 Connor Brewster 53 1 CHI 60
147 199 181 Colin Kennedy 50 2 STL 60
209 143 190 Matt MacDougall 59 0 CHI 59
168 143 190 Sal Scarfone 59 0 WSH 59
168 143 190 Tim Bailey 59 0 WSH 59
77 143 190 Dustin Hall 59 0 STL 59
106 184 190 Lanny Cardow 53 1 WSH 59
77 184 190 Judah Gould 53 1 CHI 59
168 193 190 Nathan Lodewyk 52 2 WSH 59
106 206 190 Adam Bloedow 48 2 MTL 59
241 151 198 David Hart 58 0 WSH 58
90 151 198 Brad EJ Hotson 58 0 NYR 58
209 195 198 Willow Herzig 51 1 WSH 58
129 195 198 Andrew MacIntyre 51 1 WSH 58
209 195 198 Tom MacDonald 51 1 CHI 58
226 203 198 Zack O'Gorman 49 2 CHI 58
129 212 198 Dave Michael 47 2 TOR 58
226 161 205 Dan Salerno 57 0 WSH 57
226 199 205 Keith Chappell 50 1 MTL 57
191 230 205 Mouli Ramani 44 2 MTL 57
209 203 205 Shannon Brewster 49 3 CHI 57
226 164 209 David Minuk 56 0 WSH 56
260 243 209 Sean Smith 42 3 ANA 56
191 249 211 Vince Pileggi 40 3 CHI 55
241 193 212 Nolan Coole 52 1 WSH 54
147 245 212 Todd Beaman 41 3 PIT 54
147 184 214 Dryden Craig 53 0 WSH 53
209 184 214 George Roman 53 0 WSH 53
191 252 216 Stefano Pileggi 39 3 CHI 52
168 230 217 Austin Neilson 44 1 MTL 51
191 230 217 John Martin 44 1 MTL 51
253 230 217 Larry Coole 44 1 WSH 51
191 230 217 Don Fudge 44 1 MTL 51
106 238 221 David Valenti 43 1 MTL 50
262 255 221 Della Santin 38 3 CHI 50
147 203 223 Azra Champsi 49 0 WSH 49
191 243 223 Stephen Shore 42 2 MTL 49
241 206 225 Patrick O'Keefe 48 0 WSH 48
260 206 225 Roger Rooney 48 0 CHI 48
129 206 225 Tim Smith 48 0 WSH 48
241 245 225 Linda Veryzer 41 1 CHI 48
168 245 225 Samuel Wexler 41 1 CHI 48
90 212 230 Mark Norman 47 0 SJS 47
191 212 230 Bruce Bird 47 0 CHI 47
106 216 232 Shane Davey 46 0 WSH 46
209 216 232 Josh Epstein 46 0 WSH 46
209 216 232 Rob Kerr 46 0 CHI 46
209 216 232 Shaun Tanna 46 0 WSH 46
168 249 232 Stuart MacIntyre 40 1 MIN 46
129 220 237 Joey Speciale 45 0 WSH 45
209 220 237 Paula Santin 45 0 MTL 45
226 220 237 Fred McCutcheon 45 0 CHI 45
226 220 237 Scott Munnoch 45 0 WSH 45
129 220 237 Norrin Ripsman 45 0 WSH 45
129 220 237 Aaron Pretto 45 0 WSH 45
129 220 237 Kapil Khatter 45 0 WSH 45
226 220 237 Cooper Levens 45 0 WSH 45
168 220 237 Drew Battison 45 0 CHI 45
191 252 237 Andrew Robichaud 39 1 CHI 45
253 230 247 Aaron Beder 44 0 WSH 44
147 230 247 Brad Hotson 44 0 MIN 44
168 238 249 Jeff Brinston 43 0 WSH 43
168 238 249 Dennis Clayton 43 0 WSH 43
241 238 249 Jonas Struthers 43 0 TOR 43
129 238 249 Avery Spedding 43 0 WSH 43
209 245 253 Eli Hammerman 41 0 MTL 41
266 264 253 Mike Siegler 31 3 CHI 41
253 249 255 Sarah Wardell 40 0 CHI 40
168 252 256 Scott Lee 39 0 CHI 39
253 255 257 Harris Beder 38 0 CHI 38
271 267 257 Ruth Haaima 29 3 CHI 38
191 257 259 Hanna-Marea Kennedy 37 0 NYR 37
269 257 259 David Schamma 37 0 CBJ 37
241 259 261 Sonia Speciale 35 0 CHI 35
271 262 261 Jeff Bangs 32 2 CHI 35
266 260 263 Andrea De Petrillo 34 0 CHI 34
253 261 264 Lee Beech 33 0 CHI 33
273 266 264 Shannon Lindensmith 30 2 CHI 33
241 262 266 Peter Tanner 32 0 BOS 32
209 264 267 Manuela Marinello 31 0 EDM 31
262 267 268 Doug Crockett 29 0 CHI 29
168 269 269 Chris Smith 28 0 MTL 28
262 270 270 Sophie Wexler 21 0 MTL 21
265 271 271 Joy Smith 20 0 CHI 20
266 272 272 Janine Pileggi 19 0 CHI 19
269 273 273 Ryan McLennan 18 0 MIN 18