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Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final

Pekka Rinne
Pekka Rinne might be the first NHL goaltender to score two assists and a shutout in the same game.

Round 1 Analysis
For a moment, it looked like this year's pool could have had one of the most devastating first round knockout rates, but an early shocker with Chicago going down in four straight did not extend to the rest of the round. Washington was challenged but ultimately prevailed. In the end, the Blackhawks - co-favourites along with the Capitals - were the only team in the top five of player picks to be eliminated.

That said, we had 43% of the pool knocked out, a shade lower than last year but still the 6th highest in 19 years. Just over 1,000 picks were eliminated along with more than 100 Cup picks.

Individually, Chicago's loss of 23.5% of all picks is the second-most impactful first-round knockout, behind Washington's 2010 loss (25%) and just ahead of Pittsburgh 2012 (23.4%). But in terms of the sheer futility of their picks, it is a different story. More on that below.

First round leader looks to hang on
Congratulations to Campbell Clark-Smith on taking first-round honours. Campbell took the lead early and padded it on Cam Talbot's shutouts, then hung on as the race tightened up. Pasqi Porco had a great second week to land in second, two points back while Matt Steeves is in third. Paul Martin and Shane Kozlowich round out the top five, with only a five point difference between first and fifth.

Up for the challenge are two poolies who didn't lose any players in round one. Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff, the longest name in the pool, sits in 8th with 9 players remaining while Glenn Zyzanski also has a full roster, one point back of Reuben-Apollo in 11th. They are the only two in the top 20 with 9 players, and only two more - Pasqi in 2nd and Kamerni Pillay have 7 players; the rest have 6 (or a few have fewer). This bodes well for the rest of the leaderboard that they can maintain their position.

See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.

Chicago's three-goal playoff the new definition of futility
Chicago's playoff failure can be described a lot of ways. First conference leader to be swept in round one since 1993 when Chicago was again the victim. Not the first pool leaders to go down in the opener, but the first to be swept. 2010 Washington was a bad scene in terms of expectations and players eliminated, and 2012 Pittsburgh came close. But what makes this so notable is the utter lack of scoring.

Only three goals in a four-game series is the third-lowest ever: in 2003 Minnesota scored only one goal against Anaheim but it was the conference finals, and Minny's players turned in a fine performance until then. The 2002 Flyers scored two goals in their first-round series against Ottawa (technically a five-game series), earning them the biggest bust award as a team. But neither of those teams had the sheer number of picks that Chicago had.

So without further ado let's examine a new pool statistic: average points per pick.

Most Points/PickFewest Points/Pick
YearTeamPicksEntries% of PoolPts/Pick
2009Pittsburgh17618510.629.04
2001New Jersey984027.223.64
2010Chicago2831971623.26
2008Pittsburgh35318920.822.48
2011Vancouver45220524.522.45
YearTeamPicksEntries% of PoolPts/Pick
2017Chicago57827323.51.37
2010Detroit1336722.11.68
2016Los Angeles281261122.18
1998Philadelphia151610.42.40
1998New Jersey221615.32.82
Best and worst team performances, points per pick (min 10% of pool)

The 2010 Red Wings are the only team that came close to Chicago's futility - in a pool one quarter the size - and that was with six goals scored in the series. Fortunately for Chicago, two of their three goals (and four assists) were collected by the team's stars, or else this stat might have been a lot worse than the meagre 1.37 points per pick they achieved.

Near-record-low points
Unlike last year's near-record-high, this year we have a near-record-low after round one, with both the first and last-place entries recording just one point more than the lowest ever. Campbell Clark-Smith's leading entry has 54 points, one more than the 2007 leader's 53. Other than the 2010 high of 78 and last year's 73, all other first round leaders have had between 53 and 63 points. On the flip side, the 15 points received by our last place entry is only one more than the record low 14 set in 2013.

Playoff performers
With all the downers being discussed, we should focus for a moment on the good in this year's playoffs. Evgeni Malkin quietly had 11 points in 5 games for Pittsburgh to lead all forwards. Other Penguins joined him near the top, as did Ottawa players. Erik Karlsson is in a class by himself on defense, his 6 points double that of any other defender picked int he pool. And in net, two shutouts each by Pekka Rinne and Cam Talbot have Nashville and Edmonton in the hunt in the West.

Unscathed or wiped out
Only 10 entries were unscathed this year and still have all nine players. This suggests that there is still a level playing field for round 2 as people picked not only Chicago (217 entries) but also a mix of underdog teams that went down. Five entries were completely wiped out in round 1 this year, the same as last year and second-most behind only the 26 recorded in 2012.

Biggest Bust award
Patrick Kane had 197 picks and very high expectations, even more than the rest of his team. So with only two points, the pool's leading pick is out and is deserving of this year's Biggest Bust award. (One could argue for a team-wide Biggest Bust such as the 2002 Flyers, but that was its own thing of beauty.)

Biggest busts over the years: 2016 - Doughty; 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

Hindsight award
Congratulations are always due to individuals who take daring picks that pan out. This year we have a few picks in this category that will continue into round 2. Pekka Rinne (Nas) is the best one-pick-only in years, with 16 points and counting for Matt Steeves. Ottawa Senators Derick Brassard (9 points, Connor Johnson) and Bobby Ryan (8 points, Ron Wener) have both surprised while rookie Jake Guentzel (6 points, Laura Tackaberry) came out of nowhere on a stacked Pittsburgh roster. The best player nobody took was Shea Theodore (Ana, 5 points).

On the outs
Major players on their way out: Kane, Chi, 197 picks; Keith, Chi, 142; Panarin, Chi, 98; Toews, Chi, 78; Burns, San, 55; Weber, Mon, 46; Pacioretty, Mon, 43; Crawford, Chi, 42; Marchand, Bos, 35; Price, Mon, 31.

Round 2 predictions
My record in round one was a pretty good 6 for 8, and I was happy to get the Ottawa pick wrong. This round I'll guess against Ottawa again (and hope I'm wrong). As for Washington, they never make it past round 2, especially against nemesis Pittsburgh. Picks: Pittsburgh, Rangers, Edmonton, Nashville.

Team and Player Stats:
Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks
Evgeni Malkin PIT 11 47
Derick Brassard OTT 8 1
Phil Kessel PIT 8 34
Bobby Ryan OTT 7 1
Alexander Radulov MON 7 13
T.J. Oshie WAS 7 19
Sidney Crosby PIT 7 114
Jake Guentzel PIT 6 1
Ryan Johansen NAS 6 3
Justin Williams WAS 6 4
Nicklas Backstrom WAS 6 163
Defense Team Pts Picks
Erik Karlsson OTT 6 43
Shea Theodore ANA 5 0
Morgan Reilly TOR 5 3
Kevin Bieksa ANA 4 0
Ryan Ellis NAS 4 0
T.J. Brodie CGY 4 1
Goalies Team Pts Picks
Pekka Rinne NAS 16 1
Cam Talbot EDM 15 15
Craig Anderson OTT 9 2
Henrik Lundqvist NYR 9 6
Teams
IN  Picks  Cups 
Washington 553 117
Edmonton 274 9
Pittsburgh 253 28
Anaheim 156 7
Ottawa 67 1
St. Louis 43 3
NY Rangers 34 3
Nashville 18 0
OUT Picks Cups
Chicago 578 72
Montreal 147 16
San Jose 93 2
Boston 75 3
Minnesota 66 7
Toronto 40 3
Columbus 34 1
Calgary 26 0

Projected Round 2 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Pekka Rinne would get another two shutouts and two assists, while Matt Murray would get zero for not playing.

LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.

R1 Rank
Proj. Rank
Name
R2 Projection
R1 Pts.
Lost
IMP
IMP%
Cup
11Campbell Clark-Smith101543713.0%EDM
42Paul Martin9650348.0%EDM
33Matt Steeves94513815.7%PIT
23Pasqi Porco945221019.2%WSH
83Reuben-Apollo Jackaman-Slipacoff9447000.0%WSH
56Shane Kozlowich92493612.2%PIT
116Glenn Zyzanski9246000.0%WSH
68Kevin Pinto91483510.4%CHI
89Amelia Thompson9047348.5%EDM
610Michael McShane864831020.8%PIT
1110Matthew Pledger86463613.0%EDM
1112Kamerni Pillay85462715.2%PIT
813Connor Johnson814741327.7%OTT
1114Duncan Campbell804641226.1%PIT
1914Leo Gaudet8042349.5%WSH
2414Phil Victor8040000.0%ANA
1517Sam Fielding79443920.5%WSH
2117Erin Ash7941237.3%CHI
1919Domenic DeMarco78423614.3%EDM
1520Elena Noble774451125.0%EDM
2421Mark Matheson76402410.0%PIT
2422Joel Kronis75402512.5%WSH
1523Shawn Morrison744451431.8%PIT
2423Don Colangelo74403615.0%WSH
3023Lucas Chua74393410.3%WSH
3023Matthew Warner74393410.3%CHI
3823Alvin Gainforth7438125.3%WSH
3028George Smith73394512.8%WSH
2128Nolan Ash73413922.0%PIT
3028Becke Gainforth73393512.8%WSH
3028David Loop73393512.8%WSH
3828Gary Brewster7338337.9%PIT
3828Kris Tamchy7338237.9%PIT
2134Kovi Smolack724131024.4%PIT
3834John Thompson72383410.5%ANA
3834Owen Thompson72383410.5%EDM
3834Jeff Wener72383410.5%WSH
3834Alan Eng72383410.5%WSH
3839Doug Frazier71384513.2%CHI
2439Adam De Caire71403922.5%PIT
3039Jackson Edwards71393717.9%PIT
3039Laura Tackaberry71393717.9%WSH
3839Todd Nemisz71383513.2%CHI
4739Sammi Lien7137338.1%CHI
4739Brett Kirkpatrick7137338.1%WSH
1846Jacob Johnson704351637.2%TOR
5146Mike Johnson7036325.6%WSH
5946Andrew Ryan7035000.0%WSH
4749Al Champsi69373513.5%ANA
5149Mitch Wexler6936338.3%CHI
5949Marie Sealy6935112.9%WSH
5152Ryan Chirnomas68363411.1%CHI
5152Lori Garrah68361411.1%WSH
4754Iver Dart67375718.9%CHI
5154Trish Robichaud67363513.9%WSH
5954Emma and Andrew Fielding6735338.6%CHI
5157Mason Drew66363616.7%WSH
7757Stephen Weir6633000.0%WSH
6759Peta Allard6534338.8%CHI
6759Erin Jones6534338.8%CHI
5161Michael Varriano64364822.2%CHI
5161Ron Ego64363822.2%WSH
6761Aron Slipacoff64343411.8%WSH
6761Andrew Rudy64343411.8%WSH
6761Stefano Picone64343411.8%WSH
6761Kris Karm64343411.8%WSH
9061Rachelle Gaudet6432000.0%WSH
5968Neil Poitras63354720.0%WSH
7768Samara McAdam6333339.1%NYR
7768Peter Seemann6333139.1%WSH
5971Silvio Memme62353822.9%PIT
7771Natalie MacDonell62333412.1%CHI
7771Molly McNulty62332412.1%WSH
10671Douglas Wilkinson6231000.0%WSH
10671Stacy Martin6231000.0%STL
5976Vincent Galante61352925.7%MIN
9076Blair Miller6132239.4%WSH
3078Jamie Sarner603961846.2%SJS
6778Julian Vardy60343823.5%PIT
9078Ryan Thompson60323412.5%PIT
9078Jessica Thompson60323412.5%PIT
9078Ron Wener60323412.5%CHI
12978Ethan Craig6030000.0%WSH
6784Amy van Steendelaar59345926.5%BOS
9084Carl Pledger59323515.6%CHI
9084Sean Sargent59323515.6%WSH
9084Frank Iusi59323515.6%WSH
9084Gavin Bailey59323515.6%WSH
10684Ruth Beder5931339.7%PIT
10684Steve Kent5931339.7%CHI
10684Chiara Cerzosimo5931339.7%CHI
10684Darrin Husack5931239.7%STL
2493Nathan Slack584062255.0%PIT
5993Brandon Kubis583541234.3%WSH
7793Barbara Kennedy58334824.2%CHI
9093Charles Wright58324618.8%WSH
5993Mel McNulty583531234.3%WSH
14793Aaron Rowe-Jardine5829000.0%WSH
7799Shawn Robichaud57335927.3%WSH
9099Brenden Kennedy57324721.9%PIT
6799Jay Dart573431132.4%ANA
7799Ira-Clarke Jackaman-Slipacoff57333927.3%MIN
9099Brad EJ Hotson57323721.9%NYR
10699Martin Lefebvre57313516.1%WSH
10699Richard Crowe57313516.1%WSH
90106Paula Brinston56324825.0%WSH
106106Andy Hotson56314619.4%PIT
67106John Upper563431235.3%EDM
77106Nigel Fowler563331030.3%BOS
129106Mohan Krishnamoorthy56303413.3%WSH
129106Edward Levens56303413.3%CHI
129106Andrew Tompkins56303413.3%WSH
129106Mike De Petrillo56303413.3%WSH
106114Noah Bloedow55314722.6%WSH
106114Kevin Boomer55314722.6%WSH
129114Nolan Sarner55303516.7%CHI
147114Tim Sowden55293310.3%CHI
147114Mike van Steendelaar55293310.3%CHI
147114Sandy and Noah Hurst55293310.3%CHI
77120Judah Gould543351236.4%CHI
147120Donna Thompson54293413.8%ANA
147120Steve Sealy54293413.8%PIT
147120Dave Poitras54293413.8%WSH
147120Kento Onishi54293413.8%WSH
147120Brendan Browne54293413.8%CHI
147120Shane Firth54293413.8%WSH
106127Martha Gill53315929.0%CHI
129127Randy Stewart53304723.3%WSH
106127Joel Greenstein53313929.0%MIN
147127Maria De Marco53293517.2%WSH
168127Fraser Macdonald53283310.7%WSH
168127Blair Phillips53282310.7%WSH
90133Steve Corda523251237.5%WSH
106133Mike Umana523141032.3%WSH
106133Hugh MacPhie523131032.3%WSH
168133Kara Rive52283414.3%PIT
77137Colin McSweeney513361545.5%PIT
106137Isaac Nielsen513151135.5%CHI
106137Connor Brewster513151135.5%CHI
106137Steve Kerlin513141135.5%WSH
168137Patrick Gill51283517.9%WSH
168137Ava McAdam-Beder51283517.9%CHI
168137Scott Poitras51283517.9%WSH
168137KC Swink51283517.9%ANA
168137Ryan Slack51283517.9%WSH
168137Siyeon Lee51283517.9%WSH
191137Daryl McGee51273311.1%PIT
191137Andrew Mckenzie51273311.1%PIT
90149Jeff Lucas503251443.8%WSH
106149Lanny Cardow503151238.7%WSH
129149Andrew MacIntyre503041033.3%WSH
147149Russell Reed50294827.6%WSH
147149Thomas Cheyne Matheson50294827.6%WSH
129149Fred Slade503031033.3%MTL
147149Dryden Craig50293827.6%WSH
191149Tim Day50273414.8%CHI
191149Vince DiNucci50273414.8%WSH
191149Graham Haines50273414.8%WSH
191149Pierre Allard50273414.8%WSH
191149Denise Allard50273414.8%WSH
77161Ben Bangs493361751.5%CHI
106161Desmond Desrosier493161341.9%CHI
129161Joey Speciale493061136.7%WSH
147161Richard Gretzinger49295931.0%WSH
168161Stephanie Robichaud49284725.0%CHI
168161Nathan Lodewyk49283725.0%WSH
191161Anthony Fernando49273518.5%WSH
209161Mark Brewster49263311.5%WSH
106169Shane Davey483161445.2%WSH
129169Steven Hawley483051240.0%WSH
77169Dustin Hall483341854.5%STL
147169Milton Howe482941034.5%CHI
168169Sal Scarfone48284828.6%WSH
168169Tim Bailey48284828.6%WSH
209169Brett Bowman48264415.4%CHI
209169Frank Pileggi48263415.4%WSH
209169Brad Moulton48263415.4%WSH
209169Shannon Brewster48263415.4%CHI
129179Tim Smith473051343.3%WSH
191179Pierre Maxime Gravelle47274725.9%WSH
209179Todd Foster47264519.2%WSH
209179George Roman47263519.2%WSH
209179Laura Speciale47263519.2%WSH
226179Aaron Allard47253312.0%CHI
226179Harper Christie-Allard47253312.0%CHI
147186Andrea Phillips462961241.4%CHI
147186Azra Champsi462951241.4%WSH
168186Robert Herzig462851035.7%WSH
168186Gabe Pretto462841035.7%WSH
226186Rob Phillips46253416.0%CHI
226186Robert Struthers46253416.0%WSH
226186Dan Salerno46253416.0%WSH
226186Stephen Craig46253416.0%WSH
106194Adam Bloedow453161754.8%MTL
191194Mouli Ramani45276933.3%MTL
147194Colin Kennedy452941344.8%STL
209194Matt MacDougall45264726.9%CHI
226194David Minuk45254520.0%WSH
226194Erin McSweeney45253520.0%CHI
226194Brandon Poitras45253520.0%WSH
241194David Hart45243312.5%WSH
241194Diego DeMarco45243312.5%CHI
90203Mark Norman443262062.5%SJS
129203Dave Michael443061653.3%TOR
147203Todd Beaman442961448.3%PIT
168203Scott Lee442861242.9%CHI
168203Drew Battison442861242.9%CHI
191203Vince Pileggi442761037.0%CHI
209203Willow Herzig44265830.8%WSH
226203Zack O'Gorman44254624.0%CHI
241203Jeff Ware44243416.7%CHI
241203Linda Veryzer44243416.7%CHI
241203Nolan Coole44243416.7%WSH
129214Kapil Khatter433061756.7%WSH
129214Avery Spedding433061756.7%WSH
129214Norrin Ripsman433061756.7%WSH
191214Bruce Bird432751140.7%CHI
209214Josh Epstein43265934.6%WSH
209214Tom MacDonald43265934.6%CHI
209214Shaun Tanna43265934.6%WSH
241214Ted Kennedy43243520.8%WSH
129222Aaron Pretto423061860.0%WSH
191222Stefano Pileggi422761244.4%CHI
209222Rob Kerr422651038.5%CHI
226222Scott Munnoch42255832.0%WSH
226222Fred McCutcheon42255832.0%CHI
226222Cooper Levens42255832.0%WSH
241222Patrick O'Keefe42244625.0%WSH
241222Andrew Hamilton42243625.0%MTL
241222Paul Groba42243625.0%MTL
106231David Valenti413172167.7%MTL
129231Joel Borgida413061963.3%MIN
147231Brad Hotson412961758.6%MIN
168231Samuel Wexler412861553.6%CHI
168231Jeff Brinston412861553.6%WSH
168231Dennis Clayton412861553.6%WSH
191231John Martin412761348.1%MTL
191231Don Fudge412761348.1%MTL
191231Hanna-Marea Kennedy412761348.1%NYR
253231Aaron Beder41233521.7%WSH
226241Gareth Neilson402551040.0%MTL
253241Dave Spedding40234626.1%PIT
168243Austin Neilson392861760.7%MTL
226243Keith Chappell392561144.0%MTL
168245Stuart MacIntyre382871864.3%MIN
209245Eli Hammerman382661453.8%MTL
209245Paula Santin382661453.8%MTL
241245Sonia Speciale382461041.7%CHI
253245Larry Coole38235834.8%WSH
260245Roger Rooney38224627.3%CHI
191251Andrew Robichaud372771763.0%CHI
191251Stephen Shore372761763.0%MTL
253253Sarah Wardell362361043.5%CHI
253253Marie Loop362361043.5%CHI
253253Harris Beder362361043.5%CHI
241256Jonas Struthers322461666.7%TOR
260257Sean Smith312261359.1%ANA
266257Andrea De Petrillo31196736.8%CHI
209259Manuela Marinello302682284.6%EDM
241259Peter Tanner302471875.0%BOS
253259Lee Beech302361669.6%CHI
262262Della Santin292161361.9%CHI
168263Chris Smith2828928100.0%MTL
262263Doug Crockett282161466.7%CHI
266265Mike Siegler271961157.9%CHI
269266David Schamma261861055.6%CBJ
271267Jeff Bangs25175952.9%CHI
273268Shannon Lindensmith24154640.0%CHI
271269Ruth Haaima231761164.7%CHI
262270Sophie Wexler2121921100.0%MTL
265271Joy Smith2020920100.0%CHI
266272Janine Pileggi1919919100.0%CHI
269273Ryan McLennan1818918100.0%MIN







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