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This year's Lord Stanley's Pool will revolve around two co-favourites. Conference leaders Chicago and Washington received the most picks in the pool, but their stories are vastly different. Chicago has three Stanley Cups in recent years while Washington has only advanced past round 2 twice in its history (and not since 1998). Poolies seem to think that this is Washington's year, as they were chosen to win the Cup a pool-record 117 times, to Chicago's 72, while the Blackhawks have a slight edge in total player picks, 578 to 553. The two favourites look a lot like 2013, when Chicago had a nearly identical 72 and 577 to Pittsburgh's 94 and 545.
Time will tell whether people's confidence in the Capitals is warranted, as all signs point to a second round matchup with the Penguins.
Pittsburgh and Edmonton, which would make a very exciting Cup final that's not too likely to happen, are the second tier teams, with the Pens receiving 28 Cup picks to Edmonton's 9, while the Oilers edged the Pens 274 to 253 in player picks (essentially the difference between Connor McDavid's 142 picks to Sidney Crosby's 114). As far as Cup picks go, Canadian fans were more likely to pick Montreal (16 Cups, 147 players), as the Habs and remaining division winner Anaheim (7 Cups, 156 players) form the third tier.
All other teams received at least 18 and fewer than 100 picks with only Calgary and Nashville not receiving a nod for the big prize.
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| The last time Patrick Kane was the top pick, he won the Conn Smythe. |
Patrick Kane leads the pool with a record 197 picks, his second time on top, besting his previous record of 186 set in 2013. That previous time, Kane won the Conn Smythe in the second of Chicago's three recent Cup victories, so the expectation is clearly the same for this year.
Kane was picked on 72% of the pool's entries, while three others were picked by more than half: Nicklas Backstrom (163 picks, 60%) was surprisingly the top pick for Washington while Alex Ovechkin (138 picks) was fourth. Sandwiched in there is Connor McDavid, second year in the league and first in the playoffs, with 142 picks. Rounding out the top five is Sidney Crosby (114).
Two more Blackhawks (Artemi Panarin and Jonathan Toews) and an Oiler (Leon Draisaitl) are next on the list that includes both veteran players like Marian Hossa and Eric Staal and young upstarts like Leafs Auston Matthews and Mitchell Marner.
Braden Holtby has the most goalie picks in the pool with 117, and for the second straight year has all of the expectations for Washington to win it all. As if to emphasize this, Holtby's 117 picks are the same number as Washington's Cup selections. Too bad he can't score goals for them too.
Beyond Vezina-candidate Holtby, two other goalies can make a major impact. Corey Crawford of the Blackhawks is second (42 picks) followed by Montreal's Carey Price (31). Like Washington, Montreal's Cup selections seem dependent mostly on their star goalie. Crawford, on the other hand, rarely seems to get respect - through all the Chicago Cup runs this is only the second time he was picked by over 10% and in the top two.
Following the top three, there is considerable parity among goalie picks. Every team except for Calgary has one goalie on the list.
Chicago's Duncan Keith is the top defender for the second time, and fifth time in the top two. While certainly helped by the absence of Drew Doughty from the playoffs and by Kris Letang's injury, Keith has been the most dominant defender in successive pools since Nicklas Lidstrom retired. Keith's 52% of entries is the highest since Mike Green in 2010 and 142 picks is a record high.
Beyond Keith, Kevin Shattenkirk (85 picks) will be the standardbearer for Washington. Shattenkirk's years in St. Louis gave him five previous appearances in the pool, but this is his first time in the top five picks. Known defensive stars Brent Burns, Shea Weber, and Erik Karlsson round out the top five. Beyond that, new names like Pittsburgh's Justin Schultz and Edmonton's Oscar Klefbom will try to open some eyes.
Just like last year, San Jose has 93 picks and is the underdog against a team in the high 200's. Last year it was against LA (281 picks in 2016) and this year it's facing Edmonton (274). Of course, the Sharks advanced to the final last year... This matchup has the biggest guaranteed impact on the pool. An even matchup with some impact will be Boston (75) vs Ottawa (67). The rest of the series all have a heavy favourite.
Injuries often have a negative impact on the pool. This year Pittsburgh starts off the most impacted, with Kris Letang out (he was picked twice anyway) and now Matt Murray (16 picks) injured to start the playoffs. Last year Marc-Andre Fleury was picked 13 times, was hurt to start the playoffs and went on to win only one game, while Murray backstopped the Pens to the Cup. Will the opposite happen this year?
I don't normally single out any individual entries in the opening analysis, but Jessica Thompson's incredible results over the last three years bears mentioning if only because it was such an astronomical accomplishment - and I don't think anyone can expect it to happen again. Jessica has been on the top three podium in the pool for each of the past three years - winning it twice - against odds I would calculate of over 15-million-to-one. (Oh, and they are her first three years in the pool, so it's a perfect record.) No matter how good your picks are, you need to be lucky to win. Most of the pool picks well and has the right strategy, if only for the right teams and players to shine and for the puck to bounce the right way. Three in a row in pools of 261, 273, and 213 entries is nothing short of amazing. So.... Can Jessica do it again? She is in the Lord Stanley's Pool Hall of Fame no matter what.
If there is one division winner in a tough matchup it is the Montreal Canadiens, so that is the team I'll name for the upset loss. Hopefully I'm wrong and they go all the way. My round 1 picks: Washington, Pittsburgh, Rangers, Boston, Chicago, St. Louis, Anaheim, Edmonton.
Here are the most common players in this year's pool.
F:
Patrick Kane, Chi (197 picks)
Nicklas Backstrom, Was (163)
Connor McDavid, Edm (142)
Alexander Ovechkin, Was (138)
Sidney Crosby, Pit (114)
Artemi Panarin, Chi (98)
D:
Duncan Keith, Chi (142)
Kevin Shattenkirk, Was (85)
G:
Braden Holtby, Was (117)
Team to win:
Washington (117)
Last year:
F:
Alexander Ovechkin, Was (163 picks)
Patrick Kane, Chi (123)
Jamie Benn, Dal (102)
Sidney Crosby, Pit (97)
Evgeni Kuznetsov, Was (97)
Anze Kopitar, Los (89) / Corey Perry, Ana (89)
D:
Drew Doughty, Los (85)
Kris Letang, Pit (76)
G:
Braden Holtby, Was (125)
Team to win:
Washington (92)
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| Chicago | 578 | 72 |
| Washington | 553 | 117 |
| Edmonton | 274 | 9 |
| Pittsburgh | 253 | 28 |
| Anaheim | 156 | 7 |
| Montreal | 147 | 16 |
| San Jose | 93 | 2 |
| Boston | 75 | 3 |
| Ottawa | 67 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 66 | 7 |
| St. Louis | 43 | 3 |
| Toronto | 40 | 3 |
| NY Rangers | 34 | 3 |
| Columbus | 34 | 1 |
| Calgary | 26 | 0 |
| Nashville | 18 | 0 |
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