Round 3 Analysis

Gotta love the teenage playoff beards.

Congratulations to the many people who picked both Pittsburgh and Detroit players and came through to round 4 with five or six players left. Seldom is there such clear foresight to the finals - the last time, perhaps, was 2001 when most of the pool picked Colorado over New Jersey. We've had a competitive, high scoring pool and it's a result of excellent picks.

The Fleury-Osgood-Hossa-Gonchar show
All of the remaining contenders have most of the same players, which rules out Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, and Lidstrom from making an impact (with two minor exceptions). This leaves Marc-Andre Fleury, Marian Hossa, Sergei Gonchar, and Chris Osgood as the only players worth watching ... at least as far as the pool is concerned. Let's examine the contenders.

The contenders
In all likelihood we will have one set of money winners if Pittsburgh wins, and a completely different set if Detroit wins, once the Cup bonus points are awarded.

If Pittsburgh wins: Karen Savoie has pretty much sealed first place if Pittsburgh wins - unless Gonchar can somehow get at least 14 points (not going to happen). That would leave Duncan Campbell in second and Puya Vakili-Zad in third with Aaron Pretto on the outside looking in. The only thing that could throw a wrench in things is if Hossa has an immense series, or if Osgood gets a shutout or two in a Detroit loss, in which case Bo Chen can mount a challenge.

If Detroit wins: A Wings victory is a bit more interesting in terms of the possible pool outcome. The favourite is Bo Chen, who is likely to have an easy time fending off Alan Eng, Sean Smith, and Jerome Brouard, but if Fleury pitches a shutout or two in the Pittsburgh loss, Karen Savoie and Brenden Kennedy can get themselves into the mix. Ron Wener can make a play for a money spot if Osgood gets one or two shutouts. A monstrous series from Hossa could lift Patrick Provost as high as second.

It is probably unlikely that either goalie will get shutouts, however, given the offensive nature of both teams.

Pittsburgh win				Detroit win
Karen Savoie	143	Fleury		Bo Chen	137	Hossa, Osgood (No Lidstrom)
Duncan Campbell	133	Gonchar		Alan Eng	137	Gonchar
Puya Vakili-Zad	132	Gonchar		Sean Smith	136	Gonchar
Aaron Pretto	131	Gonchar		Jerome R. Brouard	136	Gonchar
Bo Chen (-10)	137	Hossa, Osgood (No Lidstrom)		Karen Savoie (-10)	143	Fleury
				Brenden Kennedy	133	Fleury (no Datsyuk)
				Ron Wener	131	Osgood
				Patrick Provost	123	Hossa

Georgia's Last Stand
So few people picked Philadelphia or Dallas players that the ones who did could have made a big move had things worked out. Among them was Geogia Strachan, trying to pad her RRSP with a Pittsburgh-Dallas final. Had Dallas won she would be the only person with six picks in the final and could have made a big leap to the top.

Mitch's prediction
My prediction record now stands at 6-8 this year (compared to 12-2 last year) and my record for picking Detroit to lose is 0-3. But I'm still picking Detroit to lose and that should be welcome news to Red Wing backers. Pittsburgh in seven.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R2,R3)		Hot	Rd3 Pts.
Candace Unterschute	58 (136,78)		Bo Chen	39
Altaf Champsi	54 (115,61)		Karen Savoie	38
Stuart Klein/Tim Smith	51 (106,55)		Dennis Clayton	38
Andrea Dawkins/Ryan Whittle	50 (128,78)		Fahey/Hoey/Reed/Smith/Vardy	38
Patrick Provost	43 (89,46)		Patrick Provost	38
Not	Pos. Loss (R2,R3)		Not	Rd3 Pts.
Sam Fielding	51 (96,147)		8 People with:	0
Mouli Ramani/Cheryl Wallace	47 (75,122)
Mike De Petrillo	42 (71,113)
Jason Bartlett	40 (75,115)

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks Henrik Zetterberg DET 21 118 Sidney Crosby PIT 21 124 Marian Hossa PIT 19 23 Pavel Datsyuk DET 19 107 Evgeni Malkin PIT 19 131 Mike Ribeiro DAL 17 2 Daniel Briere PHI 16 1	Defense Team Pts Picks Niklas Kronwall DET 12 0 Stephane Robidas DAL 11 0 Sergei Gonchar PIT 11 65         Goalies Team Pts Picks Marc-Andre Fleury PIT 27 5 Marty Turco DAL 17 1 3 goalies with: 15
Teams
IN Picks Cups Detroit 360 43 Pittsburgh 353 15	OUT Picks Cups Dallas 11 1 Philadelphia 6 0

Projected Round 4 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 4. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 4 at the same average rate as in the first three rounds. For some people, this means that you'll have the same score at the end as you do right now!

(R1)	(R2)	(R3)	Proj. Rank	Name	Score	Alive	Cup	Rd3 Projection
30	1	1	1	Karen Savoie	143	6	PIT	182
30	22	3	2	Bo Chen	137	6	DET	175
1	13	2	3	Dennis Clayton	138	6	ANA	174
73	17	3	4	Terry Hoey	137	6	SAN	173
73	17	3	4	Mark Fahey	137	6	SAN	173
73	17	3	4	George Smith	137	6	SAN	173
73	17	3	4	Julian Vardy	137	6	SAN	173
73	17	3	4	Russell Reed	137	6	SAN	173
112	3	3	9	Alan Eng	137	6	DET	171
52	3	3	9	Gaston Nowlan	137	6	SAN	171
52	6	11	11	Barrett Boitson	136	6	MON	170
52	6	11	11	Jerome R. Brouard	136	6	DET	170
52	6	11	11	Sean Smith	136	6	DET	170
73	22	15	14	Duncan Campbell	133	6	PIT	167
73	22	15	14	Jeff Williams	133	6	DET	167
52	30	19	16	Puya Vakili-Zad	132	6	PIT	166
4	6	15	16	Brenden Kennedy	133	5	DET	166
73	30	20	18	Ron Wener	131	6	DET	165
46	35	20	18	Ryan Slack	131	6	DET	165
46	35	20	18	Aaron Pretto	131	6	PIT	165
46	35	20	18	Jean-Pierre Reilly	131	6	SAN	165
91	43	24	22	Brendan Browne	130	6	DET	164
19	3	14	22	David Minuk	134	5	SAN	164
46	2	15	24	Kevin Hoey	133	5	SAN	163
140	61	39	25	Tracy Smith	126	6	SAN	160
140	61	39	25	John Upper	126	6	SAN	160
140	61	39	25	Chris Smith	126	6	SAN	160
73	22	24	25	Vincent Galante	130	5	SAN	160
19	6	24	25	Jamie Robichaud	130	5	MON	160
105	48	24	25	Steve Sealy	130	5	SAN	160
131	89	46	31	Patrick Provost	123	6	DET	159
9	13	28	31	Norrin Ripsman	129	5	MON	159
65	13	28	31	David Lester	129	5	SAN	159
65	13	28	31	Peter Sadlier-Brown	129	5	SAN	159
119	52	31	35	Alvin Gainforth	128	5	SAN	157
30	22	32	35	Ford Hatchett	127	5	DET	157
30	22	32	35	Gabe Pretto	127	5	SAN	157
30	22	32	35	Mitch Hatchett	127	5	SAN	157
30	22	32	35	Andy Hotson	127	5	SAN	157
30	43	32	35	Aron Slipacoff	127	5	PIT	157
112	75	47	41	Allan Moeser	122	6	PIT	156
52	30	32	41	Keith Chappell	127	5	SAN	156
91	30	39	41	Jay Dart	126	5	DET	156
30	6	32	44	Michel Melanson	127	4	MON	154
131	106	55	45	Stuart Klein	118	6	ANA	152
131	106	55	45	Tim Smith	118	6	ANA	152
91	52	47	45	Daniel Wiseman	122	5	DET	152
140	115	61	48	Altaf Champsi	117	6	DET	151
52	6	44	49	Marcel Strachan	125	4	SAN	149
159	96	64	50	Dave Dufour	116	6	MON	147
52	52	50	50	Kyle Hogg	120	5	SAN	147
105	43	45	50	Georgina Hubbard	124	4	SAN	147
119	52	49	50	Deric Chow	121	4	SAN	147
168	136	78	54	Candace Unterschute	112	6	DET	146
140	83	66	55	Dan Salerno	115	5	DET	145
150	89	72	56	Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff	114	5	DET	144
14	48	55	56	Mike O'Brien	118	4	PIT	144
159	128	90	58	Mike Newbauer	110	6	ANA	143
73	52	61	58	Jonas Struthers	117	5	DET	143
46	67	66	58	David Hood	115	5	PIT	143
119	96	75	58	Shadd Dales	113	5	ANA	143
46	43	51	58	Bryan Wood	119	4	SAN	143
4	43	51	58	Grace Yu	119	4	MON	143
73	35	51	58	Gary Compton	119	4	SAN	143
19	35	51	58	Jen Reilly	119	4	SAN	143
30	30	39	58	Georgia Strachan	126	3	SAN	143
119	128	78	67	Ryan Whittle	112	5	DET	142
119	128	78	67	Andrea Dawkins	112	5	DET	142
140	96	75	69	Steven Kjellberg	113	6	DET	141
19	48	55	69	Sam Kern	118	4	SAN	141
14	35	55	69	Hank Shannon	118	4	MON	141
19	48	55	69	Jerry Rynda	118	4	SAN	141
73	106	78	73	Abraham McAllister	112	6	DET	140
14	35	61	73	Ava Raine Beder	117	4	SAN	140
105	89	78	75	Mary Sue Strickland	112	6	DET	139
154	115	78	75	Craig Battle	112	5	DET	139
30	61	66	75	Shane Kozlowich	115	4	DET	139
112	89	66	75	Kevin Hinch	115	4	SAN	139
91	106	66	75	Jim Dart	115	4	ANA	139
140	115	86	80	Rica French	111	5	SAN	138
73	52	66	80	Antony Stais	115	4	MON	138
91	73	72	80	Grace DeSantis-Peragine	114	4	SAN	138
180	124	95	83	Ashleigh Harrington	109	6	DET	137
19	52	72	83	Brian Lewis	114	4	SAN	137
1	35	64	85	Jeff Brinston	116	3	SAN	136
9	73	78	86	Kevin Clarke	112	4	SAN	135
19	61	78	86	Corgan Rikkonen	112	4	CGY	135
65	71	75	86	Einar Gainforth-Beech	113	3	PIT	135
14	67	86	89	Shad Passmore	111	4	SAN	134
73	83	90	89	Judy Wood	110	4	ANA	134
91	96	90	89	Mike Walsh	110	4	SAN	134
52	75	90	89	Angela Keenlyside	110	4	DET	134
4	83	86	93	Bill Dawkins	111	3	PIT	133
154	96	98	94	Alex Walsh	107	4	DET	132
65	60	86	95	Patrick Mitchell	111	3	SAN	131
164	141	107	96	Michael Patton	103	5	DET	130
112	106	98	96	Vince Brescia	107	4	ANA	130
173	151	110	98	Emma Fielding	102	5	MIN	129
159	52	90	99	Judah Gould	110	3	DET	127
19	89	101	100	Bobby Pomerleau	106	4	MON	126
119	89	101	100	Cavin Bennett	106	4	SAN	126
19	67	96	102	Gilles Duguay	108	3	PIT	125
73	61	96	102	Robert Struthers	108	3	SAN	125
91	67	98	104	Al Sibille	107	3	SAN	124
73	106	103	104	Pette Chappell	104	3	PIT	124
159	140	122	106	Mandy Ng	99	4	DET	123
105	115	110	107	Adam Jamieson	102	4	ANA	122
140	128	113	108	Jacques Lirette	101	4	MON	121
91	83	103	108	Joel Pollock	104	3	SAN	121
65	89	103	108	John Crossingham	104	3	SAN	121
19	83	103	108	Harris Beder	104	3	SAN	121
30	75	107	112	Mohan Krishnamoorthy	103	3	SAN	120
14	75	107	112	Patrick Bouchard	103	3	DET	120
73	115	115	114	Wayne Wood	100	3	SAN	117
52	106	115	114	George Crothers	100	3	SAN	117
105	115	115	114	Blake Wood	100	3	PIT	117
52	106	115	114	Sanjay Talwar	100	3	DET	117
91	121	115	114	Sarah Trusty	100	3	SAN	117
112	96	115	114	Brad Hotson	100	3	SAN	117
168	167	143	120	Steven Hawley	91	5	ANA	116
65	121	122	120	Jeff Drisdelle	99	3	ANA	116
73	121	122	120	Ian Winsor	99	3	SAN	116
1	75	110	123	Alexander Di Battista	102	3	MON	115
65	124	128	123	Camilla Marion	98	3	SAN	115
91	124	131	125	Jeff Hammond	97	3	SAN	114
30	71	113	125	Mike De Petrillo	101	2	SAN	114
91	0	0	127	Nathan McMillan	50	7	DET	113
91	144	137	127	Chris Kelley	93	5	PIT	113
181	141	132	127	Lyn Gainforth	96	4	DET	113
131	135	132	127	Blair Miller	96	3	ANA	113
30	75	115	127	Jason Bartlett	100	2	MON	113
4	75	122	132	Cheryl Wallace	99	2	MON	112
4	75	122	132	Mouli Ramani	99	2	MON	112
119	158	143	134	Art French	91	4	NJD	111
52	128	135	134	Shawn Robichaud	94	3	SAN	111
131	136	135	134	Dwight Butler	94	3	DET	111
9	96	128	134	Joel Elash	98	2	MON	111
91	96	128	134	Richard Rikkonen	98	2	SAN	111
168	144	139	139	Lori Robinson	92	3	DET	110
164	161	147	139	Andrew Ryan	90	3	ANA	110
119	144	139	141	Rhonda MacSporran	92	3	DET	109
9	96	132	141	Sharon Boitson	96	2	MON	109
173	170	153	143	Angie Lockett	88	3	MON	108
91	136	143	144	Richard Gretzinger	91	3	DET	107
131	141	147	144	Steve Kennedy	90	3	SAN	107
173	155	147	146	Jason Roy	90	3	OTT	106
131	155	151	146	Becke Gainforth	89	3	SAN	106
168	128	137	146	David Loop	93	2	ANA	106
140	158	153	149	Sean Sargent	88	3	PIT	105
140	158	153	149	Isa Boucher	88	3	SAN	105
119	124	139	149	Johnny Bouchard	92	2	SAN	105
131	144	153	152	Al Kostiuk	88	3	SAN	104
150	144	143	152	Paul Markowski	91	2	MON	104
182	161	160	154	Ken Shuter	86	3	ANA	103
30	136	151	155	Camillo Cipriano	89	2	SAN	102
9	83	122	155	Marni Berman	99	1	DAL	102
131	170	161	157	Roger D. Brouard	84	3	ANA	101
173	170	162	158	Sandy Morrison	83	4	DET	100
159	174	162	158	Mitch Wexler	83	3	MIN	100
112	167	162	158	DianMarie Winsor	83	3	NJD	100
154	178	166	158	Paula Brinston	82	3	WAS	100
105	151	157	158	Brendan/Evan Hoey	87	2	NJD	100
119	144	157	158	Andrea Ford	87	2	ANA	100
19	106	139	164	Renee Loubert	92	1	ANA	98
105	157	162	165	Lee McLeod	83	2	MON	96
65	96	147	165	Sam Fielding	90	1	NYR	96
112	128	157	167	Dan Greenstein	87	1	SAN	94
173	174	169	168	Tony Vanderdrift	79	3	DET	93
184	181	172	169	Ted Kennedy	74	3	OTT	91
182	180	173	170	Marilyn Beaulieu	73	4	DET	90
173	161	167	170	Lee Beech	80	2	ANA	90
185	182	179	172	Noah Pollock	69	3	NJD	86
52	144	169	173	Della Santin	79	1	MON	85
150	161	171	174	Susan Sinclair	77	1	SAN	84
154	178	176	175	Andrew Hamilton	72	2	OTT	82
150	176	176	175	Matthew O'Rourke	72	2	SAN	82
164	177	176	177	Li Sang Tan	72	2	ANA	81
154	151	167	178	Mike van Steendelaar	80	0	SAN	80
91	167	173	179	Colin Kennedy	73	1	SAN	79
30	151	173	180	Sophie Wexler	73	0	MON	73
189	183	183	181	Keith Beaulieu	59	2	MON	69
119	161	179	181	Azra Champsi	69	0	ANA	69
30	161	179	181	Samuel Wexler	69	0	SAN	69
188	183	184	184	Carol Hatchett	57	3	DET	67
119	173	182	185	Ryan Spencer	66	0	SAN	66
186	186	185	186	Laura Wood	49	1	ANA	53
173	185	186	187	Scott Strachan	46	0	OTT	46
164	187	187	188	Pierre Gainforth Beech	41	0	WAS	41
186	188	188	189	Joy Smith	40	0	MON	40
168	188	188	189	Patrick Gill	40	0	ANA	40