Lord Stanley's Pool 2008 - Round 2 Analysis

With some big teams knocked out in round two, no one has been spared the evils of playoff elimination. No poolies have more than six players remaining. With Detroit and Pittsburgh the common theme remaining, further changes in the standings will be narrow and it may ultimately come down to the bonus points for Cup winner to decide the pool.

Marc-Andre Fleury leads all players with 20 pool points after round 2.

Marc-Andre Fleury leads all players with 18 pool points after round 2.

Crosby, Malkin, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom non-factors
A common theme remains in most of the pool: the four most popular players, Evgeny Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Pavel Datsyuk, and Henrik Zetterberg, along with Nicklas Lidstrom, are on many entries and the vast majority of those in the top 50. This makes these players non-factors in the outcome of the pool. The difference will be made by the likes of Marian Hossa, Marc-Andre Fleury, Chris Osgood, and Sergei Gonchar.

Contenders have limited options
Given the uniformity of the remaining picks, movement in the standings will be based on particular players, and only certain entries have a shot to win. By virtue of being on top and having six players remaining, Karen Savoie is the odds on favourite to win. She has all five of the common players plus Fleury, and has a chance at the bonus for a Pittsburgh victory. Kevin Hoey will slip behind as the following six players who all have Gonchar; of those, Alan Eng is the favourite along with Jerome Brouard and Sean Smith who would cash in if Detroit wins. Brenden Kennedy doesn't have Datsyuk but does have Fleury, and can win with that combination plus a Detroit victory. Further down the list, Dennis Clayton and the tied Fab Five have Hossa, who with a good offensive performance can raise them up - as long as Pittsburgh or Detroit don't win. An interesting contender is Bo Chen, six points back in 22nd place, who doesn't have Lidstrom, but has Hossa and Osgood - a Detroit shutout puts him right up there and a Cup win against the Pens could seal it. Ron Wener, a point further in 30th, has a similar combination (minus Zetterberg plus Lidstrom) and could end up in the money.

And if Dallas comes through against Detroit, Georgia Strachan (30th place) could pull the upset. She doesn't have the Detroit players, but instead has Ribeiro, Morrow, and Richards - the only person who can truly take advantage of Dallas' success. She also needs Detroit and Pittsburgh not to win.

Some interesting storylines remain, if only for a small number of people. Stay tuned! The round 3 projections are at the bottom of the page.

"Who's Hot" and mea culpa
Of the poolies on the Who's Hot list (below) two stand out for their exceptional gains. Alan Eng rose from 112th to third place, while Judah Gould rose from 159th to 52nd, and both were on top of the list for points in round two. I recognized Alan in the daily commentary for collecting 18 points in one night and rising from 50th to second place in one night, but neglected to also recognize Judah, who picked up 18 points the same night and rose more than Alan's 48 places (though further below in the standings). I was called out in the Trash Talk Forum and with good reason. Nevertheless, Eng's rise into money contention in one night was worthy of extra note.

The team that wasn't
Hindsight is wonderful, and it's one of the favourite subjects in the pool. Why didn't anyone pick so-and-so? Usually it's for good reason, as no one would predict their success. This year we still have a pretty good team, after two rounds, comprised of players not picked by anyone. It would be Johan Franzen, DET (14 points), Vaclav Prospal, PHI (12), R.J. Umberger, PHI (11), Mike Modano, DAL (10), Jiri Hudler, DET (9), Ryan Malone, PIT (9); Niklas Kronwall, DET (8), Stephane Robidas, DAL (8); Martin Biron, PHI (14) for a total of 95 points - not on top of the standings, but competitive.

The best darkhorse picks after two rounds continue to be Daniel Briere, picked once, and Mike Ribeiro, picked twice, both with 14 points.

Mitch's predictions
I had a great prediction year last year, 10-2 after two rounds but this year it's a different story. 1-3 in the second round, and 5-7 after two. So just to be consistent I'll call a Detroit loss again, for a Pittsburgh-Dallas final.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R1, R2)	Hot	Rd2 Pts.
Alan Eng	109 (112,3)	Alan Eng	54
Judah Gould	107 (159,52)	Judah Gould	51
John Upper	79 (140,61)	Kevin Hoey	50
Chris Smith	79 (140,61)	Karen Savoie	50
Tracy Smith	79 (140,61)	Gaston Nowlan	49
Not	Pos. Loss (R1, R2)	Not	Rd2 Pts.
Samuel Wexler	131 (30,161)	Patrick Gill	0
Sophie Wexler	121 (30,151)	Pierre Gainforth	0
Camillo Cipriano	106 (30,136)	Scott Strachan	7
Della Santin	92 (52,144)	Joy Smith	10
Joel Elash, Sharon Boitson	87 (9,96)	Laura Wood	13
Renee Loubert	87 (19,106)	Samuel Wexler	14

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players

Forwards Team Pts Picks

Jaromir Jagr NYR 15 19

Johan Franzen DET 14 0

Daniel Briere PHI 14 1

Mike Ribeiro DAL 14 2

Sidney Crosby PIT 14 124

Evgeni Malkin PIT 14 131

Pavel Datsyuk DET 13 107

Henrik Zetterberg DET 13 118

Defense Team Pts Picks

Niklas Kronwall DET 8 0

Stephane Robidas DAL 8 0

5 players with 7

Goalies Team Pts Picks

Marc-Andre Fleury PIT 18 5

Carey Price MON 15 30

Martin Biron PHI 14 0

Marty Turco DAL 14 1

Teams

IN Picks Cups

Detroit 360 43

Pittsburgh 353 15

Dallas 11 1

Philadelphia 6 0

OUT Picks Cups

San Jose 308 71

Montreal 210 23

NY Rangers 44 1

Colorado 22 0

Projected Round 3 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 3. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 3 at the same average rate as in rounds 1 and 2, so Marty Turco would get half a shutout, half an assist, and four wins.

(R1)
(R2)
Proj. Rank
Name
Score
Alive
Cup
Rd3 Projection

30 1 1 Karen Savoie 105 6 PIT 144
1 13 2 Dennis Clayton 100 6 ANA 136
30 22 2 Bo Chen 98 6 DET 136
52 3 4 Gaston Nowlan 102 6 SAN 135
112 3 4 Alan Eng 102 6 DET 135
52 6 6 Sean Smith 101 6 DET 134
52 6 6 Barrett Boitson 101 6 MON 134
52 6 6 Jerome R. Brouard 101 6 DET 134
73 17 6 Julian Vardy 99 6 SAN 134
73 17 6 Terry Hoey 99 6 SAN 134
73 17 6 Mark Fahey 99 6 SAN 134
73 17 6 George Smith 99 6 SAN 134
73 17 6 Russell Reed 99 6 SAN 134
46 2 6 Kevin Hoey 104 5 SAN 134
4 6 6 Brenden Kennedy 101 5 DET 134
30 30 16 Georgia Strachan 97 6 SAN 132
73 30 16 Ron Wener 97 6 DET 132
19 3 16 David Minuk 102 5 SAN 132
19 6 16 Jamie Robichaud 101 5 MON 132
73 22 20 Duncan Campbell 98 6 PIT 131
73 22 20 Jeff Williams 98 6 DET 131
52 30 22 Puya Vakili-Zad 97 6 PIT 130
65 13 22 David Lester 100 5 SAN 130
9 13 22 Norrin Ripsman 100 5 MON 130
65 13 22 Peter Sadlier-Brown 100 5 SAN 130
46 35 26 Jean-Pierre Reilly 96 6 SAN 129
46 35 26 Ryan Slack 96 6 DET 129
46 35 26 Aaron Pretto 96 6 PIT 129
91 43 29 Brendan Browne 95 6 DET 128
30 22 29 Mitch Hatchett 98 5 SAN 128
30 22 29 Andy Hotson 98 5 SAN 128
30 22 29 Gabe Pretto 98 5 SAN 128
30 22 29 Ford Hatchett 98 5 DET 128
73 22 29 Vincent Galante 98 5 SAN 128
91 30 29 Jay Dart 97 5 DET 128
30 6 29 Michel Melanson 101 4 MON 128
119 52 37 Alvin Gainforth 93 6 SAN 127
52 30 38 Keith Chappell 97 5 SAN 126
140 61 39 John Upper 91 6 SAN 124
140 61 39 Chris Smith 91 6 SAN 124
140 61 39 Tracy Smith 91 6 SAN 124
30 43 39 Aron Slipacoff 95 5 PIT 124
91 52 39 Daniel Wiseman 93 5 DET 124
52 6 39 Marcel Strachan 101 4 SAN 124
105 43 45 Georgina Hubbard 95 5 SAN 123
105 48 46 Steve Sealy 94 5 SAN 122
112 75 47 Allan Moeser 87 6 PIT 120
131 89 47 Patrick Provost 85 6 DET 120
73 52 47 Jonas Struthers 93 5 DET 120
52 52 47 Kyle Hogg 93 5 SAN 120
46 67 47 David Hood 90 5 PIT 120
65 71 47 Einar Gainforth-Beech 89 5 PIT 120
73 35 47 Gary Compton 96 4 SAN 120
14 35 47 Ava Raine Beder 96 4 SAN 120
19 35 47 Jen Reilly 96 4 SAN 120
14 35 47 Hank Shannon 96 4 MON 120
14 48 47 Mike O'Brien 94 4 PIT 120
91 106 58 Jim Dart 83 6 ANA 118
46 43 58 Bryan Wood 95 4 SAN 118
4 43 58 Grace Yu 95 4 MON 118
119 52 58 Deric Chow 93 4 SAN 118
19 48 62 Jerry Rynda 94 4 SAN 117
19 48 62 Sam Kern 94 4 SAN 117
19 52 62 Brian Lewis 93 4 SAN 117
131 106 65 Stuart Klein 83 6 ANA 116
131 106 65 Tim Smith 83 6 ANA 116
140 83 65 Dan Salerno 86 5 DET 116
150 89 65 Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff 85 5 DET 116
73 52 65 Antony Stais 93 4 MON 116
1 35 65 Jeff Brinston 96 3 SAN 116
140 115 71 Altaf Champsi 82 6 DET 115
19 61 71 Corgan Rikkonen 91 4 CGY 115
159 96 73 Dave Dufour 84 6 MON 114
119 96 73 Shadd Dales 84 5 ANA 114
30 61 73 Shane Kozlowich 91 4 DET 114
14 67 73 Shad Passmore 90 4 SAN 114
105 89 77 Mary Sue Strickland 85 6 DET 112
140 96 77 Steven Kjellberg 84 6 DET 112
159 128 77 Mike Newbauer 79 6 ANA 112
65 60 77 Patrick Mitchell 92 3 SAN 112
91 73 81 Grace DeSantis-Peragine 88 4 SAN 111
52 75 81 Angela Keenlyside 87 4 DET 111
73 106 83 Abraham McAllister 83 6 DET 110
168 136 83 Candace Unterschute 77 6 DET 110
9 73 83 Kevin Clarke 88 4 SAN 110
73 83 83 Judy Wood 86 4 ANA 110
154 96 83 Alex Walsh 84 4 DET 110
159 52 83 Judah Gould 93 3 DET 110
9 83 89 Marni Berman 86 4 DAL 109
180 124 90 Ashleigh Harrington 80 6 DET 108
154 115 90 Craig Battle 82 5 DET 108
140 115 90 Rica French 82 5 SAN 108
119 128 90 Ryan Whittle 79 5 DET 108
119 128 90 Andrea Dawkins 79 5 DET 108
73 61 90 Robert Struthers 91 3 SAN 108
91 96 96 Mike Walsh 84 4 SAN 107
4 83 96 Bill Dawkins 86 3 PIT 107
112 89 98 Kevin Hinch 85 4 SAN 106
112 106 98 Vince Brescia 83 4 ANA 106
19 67 98 Gilles Duguay 90 3 PIT 106
91 67 98 Al Sibille 90 3 SAN 106
19 89 102 Bobby Pomerleau 85 4 MON 105
119 89 102 Cavin Bennett 85 4 SAN 105
14 75 104 Patrick Bouchard 87 3 DET 104
30 75 104 Mohan Krishnamoorthy 87 3 SAN 104
30 71 106 Mike De Petrillo 89 2 SAN 103
105 115 107 Adam Jamieson 82 4 ANA 102
19 83 107 Harris Beder 86 3 SAN 102
91 83 107 Joel Pollock 86 3 SAN 102
73 106 107 Pette Chappell 83 3 PIT 102
164 141 111 Michael Patton 75 5 DET 101
65 89 111 John Crossingham 85 3 SAN 101
112 96 111 Brad Hotson 84 3 SAN 101
4 75 111 Cheryl Wallace 87 2 MON 101
4 75 111 Mouli Ramani 87 2 MON 101
91 0 116 Nathan McMillan 50 7 DET 100
173 151 116 Emma Fielding 73 5 MIN 100
159 140 116 Mandy Ng 76 4 DET 100
1 75 116 Alexander Di Battista 87 3 MON 100
52 106 116 Sanjay Talwar 83 3 DET 100
52 106 116 George Crothers 83 3 SAN 100
30 75 116 Jason Bartlett 87 2 MON 100
140 128 123 Jacques Lirette 79 4 MON 98
73 115 123 Wayne Wood 82 3 SAN 98
105 115 123 Blake Wood 82 3 PIT 98
73 121 123 Ian Winsor 81 3 SAN 98
65 121 123 Jeff Drisdelle 81 3 ANA 98
9 96 123 Sharon Boitson 84 2 MON 98
91 144 129 Chris Kelley 74 6 PIT 97
91 121 129 Sarah Trusty 81 3 SAN 97
65 124 129 Camilla Marion 80 3 SAN 97
9 96 129 Joel Elash 84 2 MON 97
91 96 129 Richard Rikkonen 84 2 SAN 97
91 124 134 Jeff Hammond 80 3 SAN 96
52 128 134 Shawn Robichaud 79 3 SAN 96
19 106 134 Renee Loubert 83 2 ANA 96
168 167 137 Steven Hawley 68 5 ANA 94
173 155 137 Jason Roy 72 4 OTT 94
131 135 137 Blair Miller 78 3 ANA 94
91 136 137 Richard Gretzinger 77 3 DET 94
131 136 137 Dwight Butler 77 3 DET 94
119 124 137 Johnny Bouchard 80 2 SAN 94
131 141 143 Steve Kennedy 75 3 SAN 92
168 144 143 Lori Robinson 74 3 DET 92
168 128 143 David Loop 79 2 ANA 92
131 144 146 Al Kostiuk 74 3 SAN 91
119 144 146 Rhonda MacSporran 74 3 DET 91
30 136 146 Camillo Cipriano 77 2 SAN 91
181 141 149 Lyn Gainforth 75 4 DET 90
119 158 149 Art French 70 4 NJD 90
65 96 149 Sam Fielding 84 1 NYR 90
131 155 152 Becke Gainforth 72 3 SAN 88
164 161 152 Andrew Ryan 69 3 ANA 88
119 144 152 Andrea Ford 74 2 ANA 88
140 158 155 Isa Boucher 70 3 SAN 86
140 158 155 Sean Sargent 70 3 PIT 86
182 161 155 Ken Shuter 69 3 ANA 86
112 167 155 DianMarie Winsor 68 3 NJD 86
173 170 155 Angie Lockett 67 3 MON 86
150 144 155 Paul Markowski 74 2 MON 86
105 151 155 Brendan/Evan Hoey 73 2 NJD 86
112 128 155 Dan Greenstein 79 1 SAN 86
173 170 163 Sandy Morrison 67 4 DET 85
105 157 163 Lee McLeod 71 2 MON 85
131 170 165 Roger D. Brouard 67 3 ANA 84
154 151 165 Mike van Steendelaar 73 2 SAN 84
159 174 167 Mitch Wexler 65 3 MIN 82
52 144 168 Della Santin 74 1 MON 81
173 174 169 Tony Vanderdrift 65 3 DET 79
173 161 169 Lee Beech 69 2 ANA 79
182 180 171 Marilyn Beaulieu 59 4 DET 77
154 178 171 Paula Brinston 61 3 WAS 77
150 161 173 Susan Sinclair 69 1 SAN 76
91 167 174 Colin Kennedy 68 1 SAN 75
184 181 175 Ted Kennedy 57 3 OTT 74
150 176 175 Matthew O'Rourke 64 2 SAN 74
30 151 177 Sophie Wexler 73 0 MON 73
154 178 178 Andrew Hamilton 61 2 OTT 71
164 177 179 Li Sang Tan 62 2 ANA 70
119 161 180 Azra Champsi 69 0 ANA 69
30 161 180 Samuel Wexler 69 0 SAN 69
185 182 182 Noah Pollock 52 3 NJD 68
119 173 183 Ryan Spencer 66 0 SAN 66
188 183 184 Carol Hatchett 47 3 DET 57
189 183 185 Keith Beaulieu 47 2 MON 56
186 186 186 Laura Wood 43 1 ANA 46
173 185 186 Scott Strachan 46 0 OTT 46
164 187 188 Pierre Gainforth Beech 41 0 WAS 41
168 188 189 Patrick Gill 40 0 ANA 40
186 188 189 Joy Smith 40 0 MON 40