Round 3 Analysis
Accurate picking and good performance by the pool's top players has kept a lot of people alive with a chance through three rounds. The standings show numerous entries starting off in the lower echelons that have made the big jump into the top ten or twenty. But the elimination of two heavily picked teams - Buffalo and Detroit - finally reveals who the contenders are and who will go home cheated after a strong pool run.

Chris Pronger was the top defenseman last year, but lost in the finals. Will he be the bridesmaid again?

Heatley, Spezza non-factors
The NHL's top two playoff scorers, Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza have been so good that anyone who picked them are already at the top end of the pool. As a result, it doesn't matter what they do in the final, it will not affect the contenders at all - they will all get points together. Players like Daniel Alfredsson and Teemu Selanne will play more of a role along with which team wins the Cup.

The contenders
The Cup winner bonus points are likely to be the final deciding factor for who gets into the three money positions. Ottawa backers are already at or near the top of the pool, but Anaheim's can use the ten points to get within striking distance. Here are the likely scenarios:

Ottawa win: Keith Chappell's twelve point lead over nearest threats Patrick Gill and Alan Eng most likely assures him of first place if Ottawa wins. Gill and Eng's three-player advantage over Becke Gainforth will likely knock her out while Gerald Wexler would bow out without the bonus points. So it is likely to end up Chappell-Gill-Eng unless Mike Newbauer can sneak into third by Alfredsson outperforming Selanne and Emery by three points.

An interesting side battle will be waged between Gill and Eng for second place. They start off tied with Gill needing Alfredsson and Anaheim goalie J.S.Giguere, while Eng needs Selanne and Ottawa goalie Ray Emery.

Anaheim win: Five people who picked Anaheim are sitting in a bunch from 17th to 21st, and the ten bonus points would put the top of these - David Loop - currently into a tie for third. But the top three of these poolies - Loop, Stuart Klein, and Colin Kennedy - have five or six players left and would surely gain on the pool's top two Keith Chappell and Gerald Wexler. Whether Alfredsson, Selanne, and Scott Niedermayer can get eight more points than Ray Emery to make up the difference to first place, or seven points to second, will be the deciding factor.

Others in the mix including Candace Barry, Terry Hoey, and Scott Strachan have had their glory on the leaderboard, but will advance no farther.

North Carolina making a strong impression
North Carolinians Terry Hoey, Mike Newbauer, and Stuart Klein were very courteous when asking to join the pool as unknown foreigners, but they never said they would all be in the running for the cash prizes. They may be out to prove the Hurricanes' Cup victory was no fluke (or that their fans were worthy of it). As long as they have their eyes fully open... Canadians don't pay taxes on lottery winnings (about the only thing we don't) while Americans do (about the only thing they do). Not that this is a lottery.

Predicted finish: 1st ($792) Keith Chappell; 2nd ($396) Patrick Gill; 3rd ($132) Alan Eng.

Mitch's prediction
I'm happy to say after a poor year last year (4-11), I'm tied with the top TSN "experts" in predicting series wins at 12-2. So I'm going all out for lucky 13 with Ottawa in the final. OK did anyone actually expect me to pick the Quacks? That would be a shocker. Please trash talk me if you did.

Who's Hot and Who's Not:

Hot	Pos. Gain (R2,R3)		Hot	Rd3 Pts.
Joel Pollock	28 (91,63)		Gerald Wexler	44
Alex Di Noia	26 (114,88)		Candace Barry	43
George Smith	21 (42,21)		Patrick Provost	43
Brad MacDonald	21 (59,38)		Gary Arsenault	43
Derek McBean	19 (112,93)		Patrick Gill, George Smith	42
Not	Pos. Loss (R2,R3)		Not	Rd3 Pts.
Noah Pollock	39 (47,86)		5 People with:	0
Mike van Steendelaar	28 (22,50)		Della Santin	6
Alexander Blasioli	25 (66,91)		Noah Pollock	6
Judah Gould	23 (30,53)
Richard Rikkonen	22 (40,56)

Team and Player Stats:

Teams
IN	Players picked	Cups	OUT (R3)	Players picked	Cups
Anaheim	14	212	Buffalo	54	258
Ottawa	12	96	Detroit	11	134

Top Players
Forwards	Team	Pts	Picks	Alive		Defense	Team	Pts	Picks	Alive
Dany Heatley	Ott	21	46	Y		Nicklas Lidstrom	Det	18	51	N
Jason Spezza	Ott	20	26	Y		Chris Pronger	Ana	14	21	Y
Daniel Alfredsson	Ott	17	13	Y		Scott Niedermayer	Ana	9	76	Y
Pavel Datsyuk	Det	16	37	N		Goalies	Team	Pts	Picks	Alive
Daniel Briere	Buf	15	96	N		Ray Emery	Ott	29	4	Y
Scott Gomez	NJD	14	5	N		Dominik Hasek	Det	20	17	N
Henrik Zetterberg	Det	14	13	N		Marty Turco	Dal	18	0	N

Projected Round 4 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 4. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the players you have alive will produce in round 4 at the same average rate as in the first three rounds. For some people, this means that you'll have the same score at the end as you do right now!

(R1)	(R2)	(R3)	Proj. Rank	Name	Score	Alive	Cup	Rd3 Projection
1	1	1	1	Keith Chappell	140	4	OTT	168
24	6	6	2	Alan Eng	128	6	OTT	163
49	3	2	3	Gerald Wexler	139	4	DET	160
80	15	6	4	Patrick Gill	128	6	OTT	158
24	9	17	5	David Loop	122	6	ANA	153
18	12	9	5	Mike Newbauer	126	5	OTT	153
24	2	8	7	Scott Strachan	127	3	OTT	150
70	9	14	8	Scott Hamilton	124	5	BUF	149
7	3	3	9	Becke Gainforth	132	3	OTT	148
80	19	18	10	Colin Kennedy	121	5	ANA	146
49	8	3	10	Candace Barry	132	3	DET	146
29	7	5	10	Terry Hoey	129	3	BUF	146
49	12	18	13	Stuart Klein	121	5	ANA	145
94	24	9	13	Patrick Provost	126	4	BUF	145
4	5	12	15	Marilyn Beaulieu	125	3	NJD	144
80	22	23	16	Sandy Morrison	116	4	OTT	142
80	33	23	17	Jean-Pierre Reilly	116	5	BUF	141
100	24	27	18	Jason Roy	115	5	OTT	140
60	24	9	18	Gary Arsenault	126	3	DET	140
100	59	43	20	Alison Stewart	107	6	OTT	138
11	12	14	20	Karen Savoie	124	2	PIT	138
109	47	35	22	Andrew Hamilton	111	5	OTT	137
60	15	12	23	Sophie Wexler	125	3	DET	136
7	19	22	24	Norma Wexler	118	3	NJD	134
15	19	28	25	Steve Tivey	114	3	BUF	133
37	15	16	25	Mike Patterson	123	2	BUF	133
80	52	45	27	Sam Fielding	105	5	OTT	132
37	28	30	27	Al Champsi	113	4	BUF	132
80	59	45	29	Davie Lantz	105	6	ANA	131
100	42	21	29	George Smith	119	3	ANA	131
94	33	20	31	Kyle Hogg	120	3	ANA	129
29	28	28	32	Mohan Krishnamoorthy	114	3	BUF	128
49	42	30	33	Andy Hotson	113	3	BUF	127
60	33	23	33	Alvin Gainforth	116	2	DET	127
60	15	36	35	Russell Reed	110	3	BUF	125
114	69	53	36	Mitch Wexler	102	4	OTT	124
18	30	23	37	Mary Sue Strickland	116	2	BUF	123
29	33	42	38	Aaron Pretto	108	3	SAN	122
18	24	34	38	Jamie-Lynn Patterson	112	2	BUF	122
49	42	55	40	Hank Shannon	101	4	VAN	121
49	39	38	40	Shane Kozlowich	109	3	BUF	121
80	74	59	42	Mike De Petrillo	99	5	ANA	120
109	59	50	42	Dave Coady	104	4	BUF	120
109	52	38	42	George Crothers	109	3	BUF	120
49	42	30	42	Steven Hawley	113	2	BUF	120
18	30	36	46	Brendan Browne	110	2	BUF	119
2	9	30	47	Ron Wener	113	1	BUF	118
15	33	45	48	Lori-Ann Robinson	105	3	ANA	116
49	39	38	48	Steve McInnes	109	2	BUF	116
60	59	38	48	Brad MacDonald	109	2	BUF	116
29	59	45	48	Jeff Hammond	105	2	DET	116
119	51	43	52	Max-Zeb Jackaman-Slipacoff	107	3	BUF	115
6	39	55	53	Tony Ruffolo	101	3	BUF	114
49	47	58	54	Sean Smith	100	3	BUF	112
29	52	50	55	Joel Elash	104	2	BUF	111
70	52	60	56	Chris Smith	98	3	BUF	110
15	42	60	56	Tim Smith	98	3	BUF	110
100	69	70	56	Jerry Rynda	94	3	BUF	110
29	52	60	59	Bo Chen	98	2	DET	109
60	52	67	60	Blair Miller	95	3	SAN	107
127	91	63	61	Joel Pollock	97	3	ANA	106
100	69	65	61	Georgina Hubbard	96	2	DET	106
60	83	77	63	Georgia Strachan	89	4	BUF	105
80	59	71	63	Peter Sadlier-Brown	93	3	SAN	105
24	47	45	63	Tracy Fellingham	105	0	PIT	105
80	80	67	66	Renee Loubert	95	3	BUF	104
37	74	73	66	Norrin Ripsman	92	3	ANA	104
70	66	73	66	Tony Vanderdrift	92	3	SAN	104
4	22	50	66	Mike van Steendelaar	104	0	BUF	104
70	74	67	70	Dan Stanhope	95	1	BUF	102
11	30	53	70	Judah Gould	102	0	BUF	102
80	84	84	72	Ted Kennedy	84	3	VAN	101
29	33	55	72	Richard Rikkonen	101	0	BUF	101
80	80	78	74	Cassandra Jackaman	88	3	BUF	100
70	73	63	74	Jason Hall	97	1	BUF	100
7	52	65	74	Mark Fahey	96	1	DET	100
29	74	83	77	Jonas Struthers	86	3	BUF	97
11	66	84	78	Dennis Clayton	84	3	ANA	96
70	88	71	78	Andrew Tompkins	93	1	DET	96
100	84	78	80	Ian Winsor	88	2	BUF	95
49	59	80	81	Richard Gretzinger	87	2	BUF	94
37	74	75	82	Camillo Cipriano	91	0	BUF	91
70	103	89	83	Duncan Campbell	79	2	VAN	90
49	84	76	83	Guy Maratta	90	0	DET	90
37	74	89	85	Jordana Wexler	79	3	SAN	88
125	112	93	85	Derek McBean	77	3	BUF	88
70	91	87	85	Jen Gilliland	81	2	BUF	88
37	80	91	85	Louie Marrone	78	2	SAN	88
119	114	88	89	Alex Di Noia	80	2	PIT	87
2	47	86	89	Noah Pollock	82	1	BUF	87
7	69	80	89	Lee Beech	87	0	BUF	87
37	88	80	89	Art French	87	0	BUF	87
114	103	99	93	Deric Chow	75	3	BUF	85
37	66	91	93	Alexander Blasioli	78	2	SAN	85
94	94	93	93	Barrett Boitson	77	2	BUF	85
129	114	99	96	Michel Melanson	75	3	BUF	84
109	108	93	96	Puya Vakili-Zad	77	2	ANA	84
24	94	96	98	Jason Collette	76	2	PIT	83
100	97	108	99	Karen Patterson	71	2	VAN	82
94	110	111	100	Ashleigh Harrington	69	3	VAN	81
70	97	102	100	Jacques Lirette	74	2	PIT	81
94	107	111	102	Pierre Gainforth Beech	69	3	PIT	78
18	91	102	103	Steve Kennedy	74	1	VAN	77
100	108	106	103	Julian Vardy	72	1	PIT	77
109	118	111	105	Richard Ciano	69	2	PIT	76
37	97	96	105	Gilles Duguay	76	0	VAN	76
18	96	96	105	Rica French	76	0	PIT	76
131	121	111	108	Joy Smith	69	3	ANA	75
80	97	106	108	Alex Delo	72	1	BUF	75
37	84	99	108	Andrew Ryan	75	0	NAS	75
37	97	108	111	Cavin Bennett	71	1	MIN	74
80	88	102	111	Martha Ricketts	74	0	BUF	74
60	97	102	111	Vince Galante	74	0	BUF	74
60	110	108	114	Emma Fielding	71	0	NAS	71
125	125	121	115	Mike Walsh	58	3	ATL	70
114	125	123	116	Ella Joan	56	3	BUF	67
94	114	118	116	Brenden Kennedy	64	1	PIT	67
37	103	115	116	Kevin Clarke	67	0	BUF	67
70	118	115	116	Laura Maratta	67	0	VAN	67
114	121	121	120	Sharon Boitson	58	2	CGY	66
60	113	117	121	Aron Slipacoff	65	0	VAN	65
131	128	125	122	Sean Sargent	52	3	ANA	64
128	114	119	123	Brad Hotson	60	0	BUF	60
11	103	120	124	Grace Yu	59	0	NJD	59
119	123	124	125	David Lester	54	0	BUF	54
100	123	125	126	Della Santin	52	0	VAN	52
114	127	127	127	Katie Douglas	49	0	CGY	49
119	120	128	128	Vicki Lewis	48	0	CGY	48
130	130	129	129	Einar Gainforth Beech	40	0	NAS	40
80	128	130	130	Steve Sealy	39	0	NAS	39
119	130	131	131	Corgan Rikkonen	33	0	PIT	33
119	130	131	131	Vince Tsang	33	0	MIN	33