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Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final

Cam Talbot
Cam Talbot was the top player in Round 1. Nobody picked him, and now he's out.

Round 1 Analysis
Round 1 of the pool took a few extra days to deliver its biggest and final blow, three days into round 2. And what a blow - a sizeable impact in the pool, and a bigger one in many people's hearts.

I'll leave the heartfelt reaction to Joel in Kronis' Corner below, to focus on the numbers. The second-ranked Leafs' 415 picks impacted 179 entries, with 100 of those picking three Leafs - a significant commitment to the Leafs going several rounds deep. Edmonton, ranked fourth with 246 picks, was taken in 132 entries but only 47 took three Oilers while 64 took Connor McDavid alone. Toronto's loss has the biggest impact for pool hopefuls.

Overall, 39.9% of all picks were eliminated, and 28.2% of Cup picks - an above-average year similar to 2017 and 2010. Nothing compared to the monumentally high 2019 (over 80% eliminated including Tampa's colossal flop).

Though two more rounds needs to be played, things are lining up for a Colorado-Tampa Bay final - the current favourites versus the defending champions - looking at how well both teams are playing. With Toronto out of the picture, this is also the matchup that would keep alive the most picks.

As for Round 2, while we will miss out on the Toronto-Edmonton scoring fest many hoped for, we will have a bloodbath in #1 Colorado (519 picks) vs #3 Vegas (283) in what will be the most critical series in this year's pool. Good luck in Round 2!

First round leaders
Adam Pileggi gets the nod as first round leader without ever spending a day in first place. With the late ending of the Leafs-Habs series, the rest of the pool was collecting in Round 2 before Adam cashed in the Marner-Matthews consolation points to give him the most in the first round. Mike Johnson maintained the lead for most of the round, and it is Kevin Pinto, based on the projected standings below, who stands the likeliest chance to step into the leader's shoes.

See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after Round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.

Unscathed or wiped out
The pool collective has achieved a feat this year as no one has lost all nine players after Round 1. It is the first time since 2011 and, for that matter, marks a best-ever 287 entries without any wipeouts. Well done everyone! See the interesting chart below and feel a job well done even if you lost everyone except your Avs.

Year  EntriesWipeoutsWipeout %
19981600
19991800
20003339.1
20014000
20023912.6
20036734.5
200410200
200610421.9
200713221.5
200818921.1
200918500
201019710.5
201120500
20122332611.2
201324720.8
201421410.5
201527320.7
201626151.9
201727351.8
201835010.3
201934913939.8
202019963
202128700

On the flip side, only 19 entries or 6.6% went unscathed and still have nine players - well below average. What does this mean? With 93% losing at least one, but nobody losing all, there is lots of room throughout the standings to move up or down.

Biggest Bust award
Oh, the temptation to pick Leafs, or Oilers, as the year's biggest bust. Auston Matthews had 165 picks, just four shy of Nathan MacKinnon for most in the pool, but he did have five points - not a complete bust. So this year we're picking the kid, the legend, Sidney Crosby. You have to be good to be a bust, or else no one would pick you. Sid had just 2 points for 89 picks this year - better than last year's 1 for 101, but it's his turn. Suck it up Sid.

Biggest busts over the years: 2021 - Crosby; 2020 - Rask; 2019 - Vasilevskiy; 2018 - Doughty; 2017 - Kane; 2016 - Doughty; 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.

Hindsight award
Congratulations are always due to the few individuals who take daring picks that pan out. Kudos to Sean Sargent who was the only one to pick Anthony Beauvilier of the Islanders (7 pts). The best player nobody took was Cam Talbot (Minnesota, 13 pts).

On the outs
Major players on their way out: Matthews, Tor, 165 picks; Marner, Tor, 137; McDavid, Edm, 127; Crosby, Pit, 89; Draisaitl, Edm, 63; Reilly, Tor, 52; Letang, Pit, 49; Guentzel, Pit, 45; Barrie, Edm, 39; Tavares, Tor, 34; Huberdeau, Fla, 30.

Kronis' Corner - notes from the pool's stats co-pilot Joel Kronis
The Toronto Maple Leafs can't win (and most of the other favourites too).

For me personally I am a massive Leafs fan and this is the fourth year in a row the Leafs have lost another series and as a hockey fan I loved this series there were 5 close games and some really incredible goaltending specifically from Carey Price who was the difference maker in this series.

But as a Leafs fan it's like come on, we have been to the playoffs the last 4 years now and have lost in the deciding game all 4 years and now the Montreal Canadiens get to go take on the Winnipeg Jets starting Wednesday in Winnipeg. Winnipeg won their series in the complete opposite way sweeping the Edmonton Oilers and the two of them combined have ruined my hockey pool.

In conclusion the Leafs organization has ruined my childhood and we should have quite a few really good second round meetings specifically look in the west as we will lose 1 of our remaining top two teams - I predict Avs in 6. Also keep an eye on Lightning, Hurricanes that should be a great series as well. I am predicting Lightning in 7.

Round 2 predictions
My first round picks were 3-for-8, not my worst (1/8, 2019) but enough to keep me firmly near the bottom of the pool. I feel that the round 2 picks are pretty easy, but you never know: Colorado, Tampa Bay, Boston, Winnipeg. (and Colorado vs Tampa in the final.)

Team and Player Stats:

Top Players
Forwards Team Pts Picks
Nikita Kucherov TAM 11 47
Jonathan Huberdeau FLA 10 30
Nathan MacKinnon COL 9 169
Alex Killorn TAM 8 0
William Nylander TOR 8 4
Gabriel Landeskog COL 8 8
Steven Stamkos TAM 8 12
Jean-Gabriel Pageau NYI 7 0
Anthony Beauvillier NYI 7 1
Aleksander Barkov FLA 7 28
Sebastian Aho CAR 7 90
Mikko Rantanen COL 7 109
Defense Team Pts Picks
Victor Hedman TAM 8 63
Kris Letang PIT 6 49
Ryan Ellis NAS 6 0
Charles McAvoy BOS 5 10
Goalies Team Pts Picks
Cam Talbot MIN 13 0
Marc-Andre Fleury VGK 10 50
Connor Hellebuyck WPG 9 2
Alex Nedeljkovic CAR 9 9
Andrei Vasilevskiy TAM 9 57
Teams
INPicksCups
Colorado51996
Vegas28352
Tampa Bay24220
Carolina24216
Boston22718
NY Islanders160
Winnipeg142
Montreal102
OUTPicksCups
Toronto41555
Edmonton2468
Pittsburgh21212
Florida874
Washington591
St. Louis71
Minnesota30
Nashville10

Projected Round 2 Standings

Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Nathan MacKinnon would get another 10 points, while Marc-Andre Fleury would again get four wins, a shutout, and an assist.

LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.

R1 Rank
Proj. Rank
Name
R2 Projection
R1 Pts.
Lost
IMP
IMP%
Cup
41Kevin Pinto12261000.0%TBL
22Mike Johnson118632812.7%COL
82Jake Court11859000.0%CAR
24Ben Bangs117632914.3%COL
65Tom Nicholl11660146.7%COL
16Adam Pileggi1116431726.6%COL
87Rye Sawatzky109592915.3%COL
138Tyler Dominato108572610.5%TBL
268Jerry Gluss10854000.0%COL
810Jesse Juranka1065931220.3%TOR
810Bobby Score1065931220.3%TBL
2110Lucas Chua10655147.3%TBL
413Christina Laronga1056131727.9%COL
813Steve Sealy1055931322.0%COL
1313Tim Day105572915.8%COL
616Martin Lefebvre1046041626.7%TOR
1617Josh Martin103563916.1%COL
1617Paul Martin103563916.1%TOR
1619Samuel Wexler1025631017.9%EDM
2919Scott Poitras10253147.5%COL
2121Dylan Cosford101552916.4%COL
2122Tina Speciale1005531018.2%COL
2122Avery Spedding1005531018.2%COL
4922Paul Groba10050000.0%BOS
2625Cody Cabral99542916.7%COL
4926Edward Levens9850124.0%CAR
1327Mark Brewster975741729.8%COL
2927Cale Phibbs97532917.0%VGK
1629Azra Champsi965631628.6%CAR
3429Shane Kozlowich96522815.4%WPG
7929Frank Pileggi9648000.0%VGK
1632Steve Feltz955631730.4%TOR
2932Nathan Slack955331120.8%TBL
3432Mohan Krishnamoorthy95522917.3%VGK
3432Scott Lee95522917.3%TBL
4932Muhammad Kazmi95501510.0%COL
2137Adam Marrus945541629.1%COL
2937Mike Cuddemi945331222.6%VGK
3437Ron Wener945231019.2%TBL
6637Nicholas Nicodemo9449248.2%PIT
3841Mike De Petrillo93513917.6%COL
3841Diego DeMarco93513917.6%COL
3841Brenden Kennedy93513917.6%COL
3841Michael Sinclair93513917.6%TOR
6641Allan Crisford93492510.2%TBL
3846Danny Cameron925121019.6%TBL
3846Dan McGee925111019.6%VGK
7946Jack Walker9248148.3%BOS
10846Vince Pileggi9246000.0%COL
4950Elaine Weidner91502918.0%TOR
6650Tyler Robinson91492714.3%COL
7950Francesco Varriano91481510.4%COL
2653Sam Raso905441833.3%TOR
4953Desmond Desrosier905031020.0%EDM
4953Francis Kennedy905031020.0%VGK
4953Phil Larade905031020.0%TBL
12153Eli Hammerman9045000.0%VGK
6658Marie Loop89493918.4%COL
6658David Lester89492918.4%COL
6658Zayn Champsi89492918.4%TBL
4961Al Champsi885031224.0%COL
9161Jonah Rabinovitch88472612.8%COL
13561Donna Thompson8844000.0%COL
13561Peta Allard8844000.0%VGK
13561Doug Frazier8844000.0%VGK
6666Michelle Heaphy874931122.4%CAR
6666Ryan Courville874931122.4%COL
7966Sean Smith87483918.8%COL
10866Mike Hurley87461510.9%CAR
6670Brian Bird864931224.5%TOR
12170Brett Bowman8645148.9%CAR
14970Lori Winkler8643000.0%WPG
14970Norrin Ripsman8643000.0%TBL
14970S Ripsman8643000.0%COL
9175Jacqui Snow85472919.1%COL
12175Dave Poitras85451511.1%BOS
12175Phil Wiper85451511.1%BOS
7978Larry Coole844841225.0%CAR
4978Sam Fielding845031632.0%COL
9178Ryan Chirnomas844731021.3%COL
10878Corey Messer84462817.4%COL
16778Brandon Poitras8442000.0%BOS
3883Greg Seemann835141937.3%COL
4983Gary Brewster835041734.0%TBL
6683Tyler Quigley834941530.6%PIT
4983Anthony Bruno835031734.0%TOR
4983Fraser Macdonald835031734.0%TOR
10883Steve Kent83462919.6%VGK
10883Matt Steeves83462919.6%COL
13583Joel Greenstein83441511.4%COL
9191Jordan Ungerman824731225.5%COL
9191Chiara DeMarco824731225.5%TOR
9191David Hart824731225.5%COL
9191Andy Hotson824731225.5%COL
9191Jonah Wood824731225.5%COL
9196Alistair Viegas814731327.7%COL
12196Jamie Martin81453920.0%VGK
12196Stacy Martin81453920.0%EDM
4999John Thompson805032040.0%COL
4999Pierre Allard805032040.0%VGK
12199Jeff Williams804531022.2%CAR
12199Stephen Craig804531022.2%COL
12199Micheal Nguyen804531022.2%COL
12199Steve Vinette804531022.2%CAR
91105John Coulton794741531.9%COL
149105Wayne Kubis79434716.3%TBL
108105Dan Meister794631328.3%COL
121105Ariel Aziza794521124.4%COL
66109Ethan Craig784932040.8%COL
108109Brandon Kubis784631430.4%BOS
135109Herman Wood784431022.7%VGK
167109Stephanie Paquette78422614.3%COL
188109Andre Dube7841149.8%COL
211109Cyril Beaman7839000.0%TBL
211109Christopher Mossey7839000.0%VGK
79116Domenic DeMarco774851939.6%VGK
79116Dustin Hall774851939.6%TOR
91116Jeffrey Burke774731736.2%TOR
135116Dennis Winkler774431125.0%VGK
135116Kerry McShane774431125.0%VGK
149116David Wong77433920.9%TOR
167116Steve Kerlin77423716.7%CAR
149116Will McGee77432920.9%BOS
149116Hinz Chan77432920.9%TBL
167116Adam Jamieson77422716.7%VGK
91126Shawn Glassford764741838.3%PIT
135126Lizzy Freed764431227.3%COL
149126Greg Baca764331023.3%COL
211126Todd Foster7639325.1%COL
224126Rachelle Gaudet7638000.0%VGK
66131Ron Weidner754952346.9%VGK
79131Dylan Montague754852143.8%COL
79131Marc Ennis754852143.8%VGK
91131David Gibbons754751940.4%COL
108131Kevin Douglas754651737.0%TOR
135131Arely Marquez754431329.5%VGK
135131Daisy Marquez754431329.5%COL
167131Christopher Cito75422921.4%CAR
29139Jay Dart745363260.4%COL
135139Marc De Sousa744441431.8%VGK
167139Graham Haines744231023.8%COL
49142Daryl McGee735062754.0%TBL
149142Len Drewnowski734341330.2%TOR
121142Adam Kazmi734531737.8%COL
167142Theo & Dimitri Soudas734231126.2%COL
167142Nolan Ash734231126.2%CAR
211142Austin Neilson73393512.8%COL
188142Zack O'Gorman73412922.0%VGK
38149Joy Smith725163058.8%COL
149149Mathew Seemann724341432.6%VGK
167149Andrew Ryan724231228.6%BOS
167149Daniel Levay724231228.6%VGK
167149Andrea De Petrillo724231228.6%VGK
211149Jessica Thompson72393615.4%PIT
91155Emily Clayton714762348.9%FLA
121155Mark Matheson714561942.2%STL
149155Andrew Ford714341534.9%COL
167155Tracy Smith714241331.0%TOR
188155Claudia Winkler714131126.8%EDM
201155Ryan Thompson71403922.5%COL
201155Zackary Winkler71403922.5%COL
201155Cathy Bruno71403922.5%VGK
201155Brett Kirkpatrick71403922.5%TOR
211155Brett Babkirk71392717.9%COL
188165Samara McAdam704131229.3%COL
188165Sean Sargent704131229.3%TOR
188165Dennis Clayton704131229.3%COL
188165Shane Davey704131229.3%VGK
201165Aaron Allard704031025.0%VGK
201165Tim Sowden704031025.0%VGK
211165Ruth Beder70393820.5%VGK
255165Howie Kamen7035000.0%VGK
38173Ron Ego695163364.7%TOR
66173Douglas Wilkinson694952959.2%COL
91173Ace Mandel694752553.2%FLA
149173Mouli Ramani694341739.5%MTL
188173Nolan Coole694141331.7%CAR
38178Aaron Beder685163466.7%TOR
38178Dave Spedding685163466.7%COL
91178Peter Tanner684762655.3%COL
149178Mike van Steendelaar684351841.9%COL
167178Jeff Wood684241638.1%COL
167178Karen Stern684241638.1%VGK
167178Grant Gillan684241638.1%VGK
201178Sidney Gluss684031230.0%COL
211178Neil Poitras683931025.6%COL
211178Blair Miller683931025.6%COL
49188Cooper Levens675063366.0%TOR
49188Rachel Parent675063366.0%TOR
135188Michael Varriano674462147.7%TBL
135188Ted Kennedy674462147.7%EDM
149188Michael McShane674351944.2%PIT
167188Tony Bruno674251740.5%TOR
224188Carl Pledger67383923.7%COL
224188Della Santin67382923.7%BOS
108196Andrew Kichler664672656.5%TOR
167196Simon Rabinovitch664251842.9%TOR
167196Joel Kronis664241842.9%COL
188196Sean Desjardins664141639.0%COL
224196Nolan Sarner663831026.3%CAR
267196Siyeon Lee6633000.0%BOS
79202Shannon Brewster654863164.6%FLA
79202Vincent Galante654863164.6%COL
79202Hugh MacPhie654863164.6%COL
108202Ava McAdam-Beder654662758.7%COL
108202Russell Reed654662758.7%TOR
108202Manny Amaral654662758.7%TOR
149202Kamerni Pillay654362148.8%VGK
234202David Schamma65373924.3%TOR
234202Marc Dupuis65372924.3%CAR
91211Amelia Thompson644763063.8%COL
121211Owen Thompson644562657.8%PIT
149211Ryan Slack644362251.2%TOR
149211Todd Beaman644362251.2%COL
224211David Loop643831231.6%BOS
234211Colby Foster643731027.0%BOS
167217Jack Budd634252150.0%VGK
201217Gareth Neilson634051742.5%COL
224217Geraldine Comeau633841334.2%PIT
242217Amina Champsi63363925.0%COL
242217Thomas Cheyne Matheson63363925.0%VGK
262217John Walsh63343514.7%TOR
108223Denise Allard624663065.2%VGK
188223Steve Anderson624162048.8%COL
167225Bruce Bird614262354.8%TOR
211225James Smith613941743.6%COL
242225Brock Larade613641130.6%TOR
211225George Smith613931743.6%TOR
267225Mike Siegler61333515.2%WSH
149230Hugh McShane604362660.5%COL
188230Andrew MacIntyre604162253.7%VGK
188230Phil Victor604162253.7%CAR
211230Dave Michael603951846.2%TOR
211234Peter Seemann593951948.7%VGK
262234Michael Parak59343926.5%EDM
135236Dan Salerno584463068.2%TOR
234236Trevor Labrecque583741643.2%BOS
167238Thomas Smith574262764.3%TOR
201238Paul Ornstein574062357.5%COL
224238Harris Beder573861950.0%TOR
224238Lisa Slack573861950.0%TOR
234238Alex Cleveland573751745.9%TOR
255238Paula Santin573531337.1%MTL
188244Richard Gretzinger554162765.9%TOR
224244Colin Kennedy553862155.3%TOR
224246Frank Iusi543862257.9%TOR
234246Dave Keystone543762054.1%VGK
234246Andrew Wood543762054.1%COL
255246Dan Cleveland543561645.7%COL
255246Paolo Scarciolla543561645.7%PIT
242246Graham Milner543651850.0%VGK
242252Mitch Wexler533661952.8%PIT
242252Jon Tafler533661952.8%TOR
242252Rob Phillips533661952.8%VGK
242252Tommy Juranka533661952.8%TOR
242252Judah Gould533661952.8%TOR
201257Anna Kwan524062870.0%TOR
242257Shawn Morrison523662055.6%VGK
242257Laura Speciale523662055.6%VGK
272257Connor Brewster523231237.5%VGK
277257Mark Norman523131032.3%VGK
262262Dryden Craig513461750.0%COL
279263Amy van Steendelaar503031033.3%BOS
281263Erin Jones50283621.4%PIT
267265Estella Mae Charlotte Kennedy493361751.5%VGK
280265Isaac Nielsen49293931.0%VGK
234267Tim Smith483772670.3%TOR
242267Barbara Kennedy483672466.7%TBL
255269Katarina Ornstein473562365.7%VGK
281269Silvio Memme47283932.1%BOS
255271Jonas Struthers463562468.6%TOR
255271Adam Bloedow463562468.6%BOS
272271Miriam Pokorski463251856.3%TOR
272274Chris Smith453261959.4%TOR
242275Karen Savoie443672877.8%TOR
267275Campbell Clark-Smith443372266.7%PIT
262277KC Swink433462573.5%FLA
272277Eddie J W Kennedy433262165.6%BOS
262279Harper Christie-Allard423462676.5%PIT
272279Duncan Campbell423262268.8%TOR
267281Andrew Mckenzie413362575.8%TOR
277282Jeff Lucas403162271.0%BOS
285283Hugh Freedman39243937.5%TOR
281284Colin McSweeney352872175.0%EDM
281284Hanna-Marea Kennedy352862175.0%VGK
285284Jeff Bangs352461354.2%TBL
287287Fraser Gallop322371460.9%EDM







Comments, questions, suggestions? E-mail Mitch.