
Opening Analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
 |
| Cam Talbot was the top player in Round 1. Nobody picked him, and now he's out. |
Round 1 of the pool took a few extra days to deliver its biggest and final blow, three days into round 2. And what a blow - a sizeable impact in the pool, and a bigger one in many people's hearts.
I'll leave the heartfelt reaction to Joel in Kronis' Corner below, to focus on the numbers. The second-ranked Leafs' 415 picks impacted 179 entries, with 100 of those picking three Leafs - a significant commitment to the Leafs going several rounds deep. Edmonton, ranked fourth with 246 picks, was taken in 132 entries but only 47 took three Oilers while 64 took Connor McDavid alone. Toronto's loss has the biggest impact for pool hopefuls.
Overall, 39.9% of all picks were eliminated, and 28.2% of Cup picks - an above-average year similar to 2017 and 2010. Nothing compared to the monumentally high 2019 (over 80% eliminated including Tampa's colossal flop).
Though two more rounds needs to be played, things are lining up for a Colorado-Tampa Bay final - the current favourites versus the defending champions - looking at how well both teams are playing. With Toronto out of the picture, this is also the matchup that would keep alive the most picks.
As for Round 2, while we will miss out on the Toronto-Edmonton scoring fest many hoped for, we will have a bloodbath in #1 Colorado (519 picks) vs #3 Vegas (283) in what will be the most critical series in this year's pool.
Good luck in Round 2!
Adam Pileggi gets the nod as first round leader without ever spending a day in first place. With the late ending of the Leafs-Habs series, the rest of the pool was collecting in Round 2 before Adam cashed in the Marner-Matthews consolation points to give him the most in the first round. Mike Johnson maintained the lead for most of the round, and it is Kevin Pinto, based on the projected standings below, who stands the likeliest chance to step into the leader's shoes.
See whether you are projected to rise or fall, and where you would rank after Round 2 if everything else were the same, in our projections below.
The pool collective has achieved a feat this year as no one has lost all nine players after Round 1. It is the first time since 2011 and, for that matter, marks a best-ever 287 entries without any wipeouts. Well done everyone! See the interesting chart below and feel a job well done even if you lost everyone except your Avs.
| 1998 | 16 | 0 | 0 |
| 1999 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
| 2000 | 33 | 3 | 9.1 |
| 2001 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
| 2002 | 39 | 1 | 2.6 |
| 2003 | 67 | 3 | 4.5 |
| 2004 | 102 | 0 | 0 |
| 2006 | 104 | 2 | 1.9 |
| 2007 | 132 | 2 | 1.5 |
| 2008 | 189 | 2 | 1.1 |
| 2009 | 185 | 0 | 0 |
| 2010 | 197 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 2011 | 205 | 0 | 0 |
| 2012 | 233 | 26 | 11.2 |
| 2013 | 247 | 2 | 0.8 |
| 2014 | 214 | 1 | 0.5 |
| 2015 | 273 | 2 | 0.7 |
| 2016 | 261 | 5 | 1.9 |
| 2017 | 273 | 5 | 1.8 |
| 2018 | 350 | 1 | 0.3 |
| 2019 | 349 | 139 | 39.8 |
| 2020 | 199 | 6 | 3 |
| 2021 | 287 | 0 | 0 |
On the flip side, only 19 entries or 6.6% went unscathed and still have nine players - well below average. What does this mean? With 93% losing at least one, but nobody losing all, there is lots of room throughout the standings to move up or down.
Oh, the temptation to pick Leafs, or Oilers, as the year's biggest bust. Auston Matthews had 165 picks, just four shy of Nathan MacKinnon for most in the pool, but he did have five points - not a complete bust. So this year we're picking the kid, the legend, Sidney Crosby. You have to be good to be a bust, or else no one would pick you. Sid had just 2 points for 89 picks this year - better than last year's 1 for 101, but it's his turn. Suck it up Sid.
Biggest busts over the years: 2021 - Crosby; 2020 - Rask; 2019 - Vasilevskiy; 2018 - Doughty; 2017 - Kane; 2016 - Doughty; 2015 - Pietrangelo; 2014 - Krejci; 2013 - Ovechkin; 2012 - Luongo; 2011 - Backstrom; 2010 - Brodeur; 2009 - Nabokov; 2008 - Brodeur; 2007 - Kariya; 2006 - Lidstrom; 2004 - Brodeur; 2003 - Joseph; 2002 - Entire Flyers roster (ok ok: Roenick); 2001 - Yzerman; 2000 - Gonchar; 1999 - Yashin; 1998 - Holik.
Congratulations are always due to the few individuals who take daring picks that pan out. Kudos to Sean Sargent who was the only one to pick Anthony Beauvilier of the Islanders (7 pts). The best player nobody took was Cam Talbot (Minnesota, 13 pts).
Major players on their way out: Matthews, Tor, 165 picks; Marner, Tor, 137; McDavid, Edm, 127; Crosby, Pit, 89; Draisaitl, Edm, 63; Reilly, Tor, 52; Letang, Pit, 49; Guentzel, Pit, 45; Barrie, Edm, 39; Tavares, Tor, 34; Huberdeau, Fla, 30.
The Toronto Maple Leafs can't win (and most of the other favourites too).
For me personally I am a massive Leafs fan and this is the fourth year in a row the Leafs have lost another series and as a hockey fan I loved this series there were 5 close games and some really incredible goaltending specifically from Carey Price who was the difference maker in this series.
But as a Leafs fan it's like come on, we have been to the playoffs the last 4 years now and have lost in the deciding game all 4 years and now the Montreal Canadiens get to go take on the Winnipeg Jets starting Wednesday in Winnipeg. Winnipeg won their series in the complete opposite way sweeping the Edmonton Oilers and the two of them combined have ruined my hockey pool.
In conclusion the Leafs organization has ruined my childhood and we should have quite a few really good second round meetings specifically look in the west as we will lose 1 of our remaining top two teams - I predict Avs in 6. Also keep an eye on Lightning, Hurricanes that should be a great series as well. I am predicting Lightning in 7.
My first round picks were 3-for-8, not my worst (1/8, 2019) but enough to keep me firmly near the bottom of the pool. I feel that the round 2 picks are pretty easy, but you never know: Colorado, Tampa Bay, Boston, Winnipeg. (and Colorado vs Tampa in the final.)
| Top Players |
| Forwards |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Nikita Kucherov |
TAM |
11 |
47 |
| Jonathan Huberdeau |
FLA |
10 |
30 |
| Nathan MacKinnon |
COL |
9 |
169 |
| Alex Killorn |
TAM |
8 |
0 |
| William Nylander |
TOR |
8 |
4 |
| Gabriel Landeskog |
COL |
8 |
8 |
| Steven Stamkos |
TAM |
8 |
12 |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
NYI |
7 |
0 |
| Anthony Beauvillier |
NYI |
7 |
1 |
| Aleksander Barkov |
FLA |
7 |
28 |
| Sebastian Aho |
CAR |
7 |
90 |
| Mikko Rantanen |
COL |
7 |
109 |
|
| Defense |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Victor Hedman |
TAM |
8 |
63 |
| Kris Letang |
PIT |
6 |
49 |
| Ryan Ellis |
NAS |
6 |
0 |
| Charles McAvoy |
BOS |
5 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
| Goalies |
Team |
Pts |
Picks |
| Cam Talbot |
MIN |
13 |
0 |
| Marc-Andre Fleury |
VGK |
10 |
50 |
| Connor Hellebuyck |
WPG |
9 |
2 |
| Alex Nedeljkovic |
CAR |
9 |
9 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy |
TAM |
9 |
57 |
|
|
|
|
|
| Teams |
| Colorado | 519 | 96 |
| Vegas | 283 | 52 |
| Tampa Bay | 242 | 20 |
| Carolina | 242 | 16 |
| Boston | 227 | 18 |
| NY Islanders | 16 | 0 |
| Winnipeg | 14 | 2 |
| Montreal | 10 | 2 |
|
| Toronto | 415 | 55 |
| Edmonton | 246 | 8 |
| Pittsburgh | 212 | 12 |
| Florida | 87 | 4 |
| Washington | 59 | 1 |
| St. Louis | 7 | 1 |
| Minnesota | 3 | 0 |
| Nashville | 1 | 0 |
|
Here are the projected scores and rankings for after round 2. The projection assumes (wrongly, of course) that the remaining players will produce in round 2 at the exact same rate as in round 1. For example, Nathan MacKinnon would get another 10 points, while Marc-Andre Fleury would again get four wins, a shutout, and an assist.
LOST=Players Lost in Round 1
IMP=Impact (pts. by lost players)
IMP%=Impact as % of total pts.
|