Opening analysis / Round 1 / Round 2 / Round 3 / Final
The 20th edition of Lord Stanley's Pool is our largest ever, with a big jump from 273 entries last year to 350 this time. It has long been a very difficult pool to place in the top 3 and it's only getting harder with people getting smarter with their picks. But for only $10 it's a bit of fun, and a point of pride - finishing in the top 50 is no small feat.
This year's pool may go one of two ways. Nashville may march to the finals as a consensus Cup pick on the strength of Pekka Rinne and spread out offense. Or it may be a wide open affair, with four clear favourites - Nashville, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay and Winnipeg. Nashville is the clear leader with 114 Cup picks, but the other three favourites have between 40 and 50, and all four teams have over 35% of possible player picks. Nashville leads with 601, with Pittsburgh close behind at 550, Tampa Bay 452, and Winnipeg 376.
Nashville's big lead in Cup picks is curious given that only one Predators player is in the top 10 picked forwards. Poolies like Nashville's goalie most of all, and they have two of the top three defenseman, but offence is being left primarily to Pittsburgh, who have the top two forwards and three of the top six.
Beyond the top four teams, Toronto (32 Cup picks) and Boston (28) were popular with over 200 player picks each, getting plenty more attention than division winners Washington (12 Cups, 164 players) and Vegas (10 Cups, 141 players).
Time will tell whether we see big upsets like last year and numerous other seasons, or if the big guns will still be alive into the Conference Finals.
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| Pekka Rinne is tabbed to lead Predators' bettors, and will be counted on for a few shutouts. |
Evgeni Malkin, last year's playoff scoring leader, leads the pool with 187 picks, his third time on top. It is his third time leading the pool, in all cases (including this time) edging Sidney Crosby for the most picks. (Crosby has only led once, but has been runner up an additional five times.) Malkin's 53.4% pick rate is the lowest ever for the leading player in Pool history, underlining the strength of numerous other teams that are legitimate Cup contenders.
Crosby is the only other player picked on 50% of all entries.
A total of 29 players (at any position) were picked on at least 10 per cent of all entries, a record high (previously 28 in 2012 and 1999). You have all agreed to disagree with each other - and it has the makings of an exciting competition in the pool standings.
Nashville veteran Pekka Rinne is the leading goalie with 151 picks, or 43%. Rinne was picked only once last year, yet made it to the Cup finals, proving his worth and setting up this year's expectations. On the other hand, Braden Holtby was wiped out this year, collecting ZERO picks after leading in goalie picks the last two years. Holtby is still Washington's #1 goaltender, yet his backup received a pick and he didn't.
While Rinne is the clear goalie leader, others can make an impact. Connor Hellebuyck is second with 49 picks after a great year in Winnipeg. Tampa's Andrei Vasilevskiy was picked 38 times, while Marc-Andre Fleury (Vegas, 24), Matt Murray (Pit, 24) and Tuukka Rask (Bos, 23) are all key players. Goalie picks often mirror team Cup picks, but this year there is some interesting deviation - Fleury's 24 is a surprise given Vegas had only 10 Cup picks, while Murray's 24 is low considering the Penguins were chosen 49 times for the Cup.
P.K. Subban is the top defenseman pick, chosen 157 times (45%) for Nashville. This is Subban's second time as the favoured defenseman and he becomes the first player to be the top pick at his position for two different teams. Subban was the top D pick in 2015 for Montreal.
Victor Hedman also had over 100 picks (Tam, 107) while Nashville's Roman Josi and San Jose's Brent Burns both had 50 or more picks.
Toronto is always a favourite son in Lord Stanley's Pool since so many of the participants are from there. But they have a tough task this year against Boston. Both Boston and Toronto have over 200 picks and they are ranked 5th and 6th in Cup picks and players. No matter how this series turns out, there will be a big impact taken by the losing team. All other top teams are playing opponents at the bottom of the list, notably Nashville's 601 vs Colorado's 7 and Tampa Bay's 452 vs New Jersey's 11. Lower impact close battles include Vegas vs LA (141, 122) and San Jose vs Anaheim (100 vs 64).
Much was said in the last two years about Jessica Thompson's run against incredible odds, and we saw it happen again out of nowhere in the finals last year. So it's four times in a row that Jessica has been in the top three - at odds of over 50-million-to-one. If she can do it for a fifth year in a row - in a field of 351 contestants - it would be six-billion-to-one. Well, good luck with that! So an early warning for watchers (and there are a few): If Tampa Bay meets Nashville in the finals - and if the Bolts have a few shutouts along the way, you may see Jessica nearby. Too bad her third team, the Kings, are in bad shape in the early going.
San Jose and Washington always lose, so never bet on them! But if my predictions are correct, they'll both win one round. My round 1 picks: Tampa Bay, Boston, Washington, Pittsburgh, Nashville, Winnipeg, Vegas, San Jose.
Here are the most common players in this year's pool.
F:
Evgeni Malkin, Pit (187 picks)
Sidney Crosby, Pit (177)
Nikita Kucherov, Tam (162)
Filip Forsberg, Nas (145)
Blake Wheeler, Wpg (131)
Phil Kessel, Pit (112)
D:
P.K. Subban, Nas (157)
Victor Hedman, Tam (107)
G:
Pekka Rinne, Nas (151)
Team to win:
Nashville (114)
Last year:
F:
Patrick Kane, Chi (197 picks)
Nicklas Backstrom, Was (163)
Connor McDavid, Edm (142)
Alexander Ovechkin, Was (138)
Sidney Crosby, Pit (114)
Artemi Panarin, Chi (98)
D:
Duncan Keith, Chi (142)
Kevin Shattenkirk, Was (85)
G:
Braden Holtby, Was (117)
Team to win:
Washington (117)
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| Nashville | 601 | 114 |
| Pittsburgh | 550 | 49 |
| Tampa Bay | 452 | 50 |
| Winnipeg | 376 | 40 |
| Toronto | 238 | 32 |
| Boston | 222 | 28 |
| Washington | 164 | 12 |
| Vegas | 141 | 10 |
| Los Angeles | 122 | 7 |
| San Jose | 100 | 4 |
| Anaheim | 64 | 1 |
| Philadelphia | 54 | 0 |
| Columbus | 34 | 2 |
| Minnesota | 14 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 11 | 1 |
| Colorado | 7 | 0 |
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